Monetary recovery still fragile. Global six-month real narrow money momentum returned to positive territory in March but remains weak and could reverse lower as headline CPI momentum recovers and US Treasury financing operations turn contractionary (see charts). Flash PMIs question upswing hopes. DM results suggest that global new orders fell back this month, possibly marking […]

In our 1st quarter investor letter, we discuss our views on the MENA equity markets and the main return drivers for the strategy during the quarter.

In our 1st quarter investor letter, we discuss our views on frontier emerging markets and the main return drivers for the strategy over the period.

UK house prices were an estimated 52% expensive relative to history at the end of 2023, based on a comparison with rents and the real yield on index-linked gilts, a competing inflation-protected asset. The degree of overvaluation is below previous extremes and does not imply that house prices need to fall by an equivalent magnitude, or even at all – the deviation could be eliminated by rental growth and a reversal of the recent rise in real yields.

One of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 6) established by United Nations (UN) is Clean Water and Sanitation, which aims to ensure the availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all. The water crisis is unprecedented In 2022, 2.2 billion people (27% of world’s population) lacked safely managed drinking water – meaning […]

A modest upside inflation surprise in March has been portrayed as confirming that inflationary pressures remain sticky, warranting further delay in policy easing. The stickiness charge is bizarre in the context of recent aggregate data. The six-month rate of change of core consumer prices, seasonally adjusted, has fallen from a peak of 8.4% annualised in July 2023 to 2.4% in March.

Exploring Asia and insights from Japan and China.

Is a potential double positive in global excess money set to boost EM equities?

Insights into Europe via Sopra Steria’s & Melia Hotel’s growth.

Insights from our most recent research trip.

Insights on navigating the M&A wave.

The quarterly commentary in mid-2023 noted that the cycle and monetary analyses were giving conflicting signals. The stockbuilding cycle appeared to be tracing out a low, a development usually associated with stronger performance of equities and other cyclical assets. However, greater weight was accorded to continued weakness in global real narrow money momentum, which suggested downside risk to economic activity and insufficient liquidity to support market gains.

Cutting costs, optimizing sales and elevating shopping with ESLs.

US economic “resilience” in 2023, recent inflation stabilisation and buoyant risk asset markets raise the question of whether the current level of policy rates is restrictive. A “neutral” level of rates, according to the monetarist view, is one that results in monetary growth consistent with target inflation.