The major fiscal tightening announced by Chancellor Hunt in the Autumn Statement was motivated by a markedly more pessimistic OBR assessment of medium-term prospects for the economy and public finances. Even if its la [...]

We discuss the importance of market research and the overall marketing expenditures in a context of an economic slowdown.

We have been discussing the news flowing out of China’s 20th Party Congress (held from 16th-22nd October) at length over the past few weeks. While the press and market reaction was poor, there are some positives fro [...]

In this paper, we examine the rising trend of Saudi nationals leading Saudi-listed companies. Our work shows that developing an understanding of the people and culture of Saudi companies provides valuable insights on [...]

We discuss historical performance of small caps in the 1970s, and why now is the time to increase exposure to small cap.

A simple model of the Fed’s past behaviour suggests a shift in policy direction from tightening to easing in March 2023, assuming that the economy evolves in line with its forecasts. The Fed could delay cutting rate [...]

The “monetarist” rule of thumb that broad money growth leads inflation by two years suggests a rapid fall in G7 CPI inflation in 2023 and an undershoot of targets by H2 2024. Annual growth of the G7 broad money me [...]

L’activité économique mondiale se dirige vers un ralentissement. Après avoir procédé à une série de hausses rapides de leur taux directeur, les banques centrales ont commencé à ralentir le rythme de ces hau [...]

We discuss recent events in the UK and impacts on the markets.

We look at recent changes affecting the semiconductor industry, chip exports and wafer fabrication.

UK monetary statistics for September were heavily distorted by cash-raising by LDI funds to meet collateral requirements for derivative contracts.  The headline M4ex broad money aggregate surged by £91 billion, [...]

Relatively speaking, the strategy’s returns for the quarter are respectable. While a single quarter of outperformance versus global and emerging market equities is by no means significant, there are observations tha [...]

Chinese money trends remain moderately favourable but the economy has been held back by covid disruption and now faces an export threat from global recession. Stocks, meanwhile, have been hit by a ramping up of the Bi [...]

We highlight one commodity set to benefit from its role as the critical metal of the energy transition.