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The stockbuilding cycle is on course to bottom soon and upturns have historically been associated with a procyclical shift in market behaviour. Several considerations, however, argue for caution about positioning for such a shift now.
It might be expected that G7 central bankers, in attempting to judge inflation prospects and the appropriate policy stance, would be paying close attention to indicators that signalled the recent inflationary upsurge.
Commentators have expressed scepticism about a large monthly fall in the “experimental” PAYE employees measure in April (136,000 or 0.45%, equivalent to a 700,000 drop in US non-farm payrolls). It is true that initial estimates are often revised significantly but the largest upward adjustment to the month-on-month change historically was 121,000, relating to a pandemic-distorted month (March 2021*).
La BdC a mis ses hausses de taux sur pause, contrairement à d’autres banques centrales qui ont pris les marchés par surprise en annonçant un relèvement de leurs taux. Quelles conséquences cette situation pourrait-elle avoir sur le Canada?
UK vacancies – like US job openings – are signalling an employment recession. A previous post noted that a fall in US job openings of more than 15% from a rolling 12-month high was always (since the 1950s) associated with a multi-month fall in payrolls.
The global manufacturing PMI new orders index – a timely indicator of global goods demand – was little changed below 50 (49.4) in April, a weaker result than had been suggested by DM flash results.
