Warren Stoddart, président et chef de la direction du Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn, s’est récemment joint à Chas Burkhart, chef de la direction de Rosemont, à titre d’invité au balado Global Investment Leaders.

Learn the effects of investor positioning and risk on small caps in the new political environment.

Crestpoint is pleased to announce the launch and initial funding of the Crestpoint Opportunistic Real Estate Strategy, its first closed-end product.

Warning signs. US monetary deficit financing has (temporarily?) slowed, bank reserves are trending lower, US overnight rates have firmed and global six-month real narrow money momentum has crossed back below industrial output momentum (see charts). US jobs data in focus. The comprehensive Business Employment Dynamics dataset for Q4 is released this week; Q3 data showed […]

Chinese money trends are puzzling but ominous, suggesting – at a minimum – that the economy will remain weak through H2. Q2 real GDP growth came in below expectations but there was better news on the nominal side: two-quarter nominal GDP expansion rose for a second quarter as the GDP deflator stabilised. This improvement tallies with a recovery in six-month rates of change of narrow money and broad credit around end-2023.

Improving global monetary data and signs of a dollar peak bode well for EM returns.

An analysis of the Fed’s historical behaviour suggests that the conditions for policy easing are in place. Chart 1 shows the fitted values and current prediction of a logit probability model for classifying months according to whether the Fed is in policy-tightening or policy-easing mode. The model’s determination for a particular month depends on values of annual core PCE inflation, the unemployment rate and the ISM manufacturing delivery delays index known at the end of the first week of the month (i.e. after the release of the employment report for the prior month).

Five longstanding ESG themes that predate responsible investing.

Monetary analysis suggests that the global economy will weaken into early 2025, while inflation will continue to decline. A cyclical forecasting framework, on the other hand, points to the possibility of strong economic growth in H2 2025 and 2026.

Commentary for Q1 2022 on the Global Emerging Markets Equity Strategy

Q2 2024 Quarterly Market Liquidity for Emerging Markets

Commentary for Q1 2022 on the International Equity Strategy

Eurozone money trends remain too weak to support an economic recovery. A relapse in the latest business surveys could mark the start of a “double dip”. Three-month rates of change of narrow and broad money – as measured by non-financial M1 and M3 – were zero and 3.3% annualised respectively in May.

Labour’s housing and green energy plans may help drive up the market.

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