Eurozone / UK CPI momentum continues to normalise in line with the profile of broad money growth two years ago, a relationship suggesting a return of annual inflation to target in 2024 and an undershoot in 2025. The six-month annualised rate of increase of Eurozone consumer prices (ECB seasonally adjusted measure) was stable at 3.3% in September but core momentum (i.e. excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) posted another hefty fall from 4.0% to 3.4%, the lowest since January 2022.

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This is the first of a series of short posts focusing on whether incoming economic news supports or contradicts the forecast of a global “hard landing” suggested by monetary trends. Flash results suggest that the global composite PMI new orders index – a timely indicator of demand momentum – fell for a fourth month in September, consistent with the monetary signal of a slide into early 2024, at least.

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Global six-month real narrow money momentum is estimated to have broken to a new low in August, reinforcing pessimism here about economic prospects and casting strong doubt on now widely-held “soft landing” hopes. Real money momentum bottomed in July 2022, recovered during H2 but suffered a relapse in early 2023, retesting the 2022 low in April.

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Analyse de la hausse furtive des déficits aux États-Unis et du changement tranquille de politique budgétaire dans un contexte de gains économiques.

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A post in May suggested that UK employment would embark on a sustained decline in Q2. This was based on the stock of vacancies having fallen 17% from its 12-month peak – declines of more than 15% historically were always associated with sustained employment falls.

A “double dip” in the global economy suggested by monetary trends appears to be playing out, with weakness likely to intensify into late 2023. The global composite PMI new orders index – a timely coincident indicator – continued its decline from a May peak last month.

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Eurozone / UK July money numbers offer further support to the assessment here that ECB / Bank of England policy tightening has been excessive and – unless reversed swiftly – will cause unnecessarily severe economic weakness and a medium-term inflation undershoot. The latest releases are astonishing in several respects.

Why have global government bond yields picked up over the summer despite weakening PMIs and neutral / favourable inflation news? The rise is attributed here to a further deterioration in the global “excess” money backdrop driven partly by unexpected output strength as an easing of supply constraints has allowed firms to work off order backlogs.