A modest upside inflation surprise in March has been portrayed as confirming that inflationary pressures remain sticky, warranting further delay in policy easing. The stickiness charge is bizarre in the context of recent aggregate data. The six-month rate of change of core consumer prices, seasonally adjusted, has fallen from a peak of 8.4% annualised in July 2023 to 2.4% in March.

Exploring Asia and insights from Japan and China.

Is a potential double positive in global excess money set to boost EM equities?

Headline inflation momentum bottoming. The six-month rate of change of global consumer prices reached a new low in March but will rebound if recent commodity price strength holds / extends (see charts). Perspective on US core inflation. Annual core CPI inflation firmed to 3.8% in March but was 1.2% excluding shelter and motor vehicle insurance; […]

Insights into Europe via Sopra Steria’s & Melia Hotel’s growth.

Insights from our most recent research trip.

Insights on navigating the M&A wave.

The quarterly commentary in mid-2023 noted that the cycle and monetary analyses were giving conflicting signals. The stockbuilding cycle appeared to be tracing out a low, a development usually associated with stronger performance of equities and other cyclical assets. However, greater weight was accorded to continued weakness in global real narrow money momentum, which suggested downside risk to economic activity and insufficient liquidity to support market gains.

Cutting costs, optimizing sales and elevating shopping with ESLs.

US economic “resilience” in 2023, recent inflation stabilisation and buoyant risk asset markets raise the question of whether the current level of policy rates is restrictive. A “neutral” level of rates, according to the monetarist view, is one that results in monetary growth consistent with target inflation.

Japan’s banks rally – a shift toward normalcy in 2024?

Global six-month real narrow money momentum – a key leading indicator in the forecasting approach employed here – has recovered from a low in September 2023 but remains negative and could be stalling. Allowing for the typical lead, this suggests a slide in economic momentum into mid-year with limited subsequent revival.

Dans la mise à jour annuelle de cette année, nous examinons comment nous avons renforcé notre avantage concurrentiel grâce à la recherche continue et au développement de la prochaine génération de dirigeants au sein de notre organisation.

Summary A bounce in unloved Chinese equities led a positive month for EM stocks, with the MSCI EM Index up nearly 5% in USD terms. Among the leaders was portfolio holding Trip.com, which surged over 25%, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand for travel in China. Korean stocks continued a run of strong performance fed […]