Warren Stoddart rejoint Chas Burkhart dans le balado Global Investment Leaders
septembre 22, 2022
Warren Stoddart, président et chef de la direction du Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn, s’est récemment joint à Chas Burkhart, chef de la direction de Rosemont, à titre d’invité au balado Global Investment Leaders.
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Global money growth stall extends as PMIs soften
juillet 26, 2024 | NS Partners
Global six-month real narrow money momentum – a key indicator in the forecasting process followed here – is estimated to have moved sideways for a third month in June, based on monetary data covering 85% of the aggregate. Real money momentum has recovered from a September 2023 low but remains below both its long-run average and the average in the 10 years preceding the GFC, when short-term interest rates were closer to recent levels. The expectation here has been that the fall into the September 2023 low would be reflected in a weakening of global industrial momentum into late 2024.
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Upcoming earning season and fund flows
juillet 25, 2024 | Gestion d’actifs Global Alpha Ltée
Learn the effects of investor positioning and risk on small caps in the new political environment.
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Crestpoint proudly announces the initial closing of the “Crestpoint Opportunistic Real Estate Strategy” and its…
juillet 24, 2024 | Investissements immobiliers Crestpoint Ltée
Crestpoint is pleased to announce the launch and initial funding of the Crestpoint Opportunistic Real Estate Strategy, its first closed-end product.
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Has global liquidity tightened?
juillet 22, 2024 | NS Partners
Warning signs. US monetary deficit financing has (temporarily?) slowed, bank reserves are trending lower, US overnight rates have firmed and global six-month real narrow money momentum has crossed back below industrial output momentum (see charts). US jobs data in focus. The comprehensive Business Employment Dynamics dataset for Q4 is released this week; Q3 data showed […]
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Should record Chinese monetary weakness be discounted?
juillet 17, 2024 | NS Partners
Chinese money trends are puzzling but ominous, suggesting – at a minimum – that the economy will remain weak through H2. Q2 real GDP growth came in below expectations but there was better news on the nominal side: two-quarter nominal GDP expansion rose for a second quarter as the GDP deflator stabilised. This improvement tallies with a recovery in six-month rates of change of narrow money and broad credit around end-2023.
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Are emerging markets on the cusp of a “virtuous circle”?
juillet 17, 2024 | NS Partners
Improving global monetary data and signs of a dollar peak bode well for EM returns.
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What would the historical Fed do?
juillet 11, 2024 | NS Partners
An analysis of the Fed’s historical behaviour suggests that the conditions for policy easing are in place. Chart 1 shows the fitted values and current prediction of a logit probability model for classifying months according to whether the Fed is in policy-tightening or policy-easing mode. The model’s determination for a particular month depends on values of annual core PCE inflation, the unemployment rate and the ISM manufacturing delivery delays index known at the end of the first week of the month (i.e. after the release of the employment report for the prior month).
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ESG isn’t tree hugging, it’s smart finance
juillet 4, 2024 | Gestion d’actifs Global Alpha Ltée
Five longstanding ESG themes that predate responsible investing.
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A « monetarist » perspective on current equity markets
juillet 4, 2024 | NS Partners
Monetary analysis suggests that the global economy will weaken into early 2025, while inflation will continue to decline. A cyclical forecasting framework, on the other hand, points to the possibility of strong economic growth in H2 2025 and 2026.
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Global Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Commentary
juin 30, 2024 | NS Partners
Commentary for Q1 2022 on the Global Emerging Markets Equity Strategy
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Quarterly Liquidity Insights
juin 30, 2024 | NS Partners
Q2 2024 Quarterly Market Liquidity for Emerging Markets
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International Equity Strategy Commentary
juin 30, 2024 | NS Partners
Commentary for Q1 2022 on the International Equity Strategy
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Is Eurozone “recovery” aborting?
juin 28, 2024 | NS Partners
Eurozone money trends remain too weak to support an economic recovery. A relapse in the latest business surveys could mark the start of a “double dip”. Three-month rates of change of narrow and broad money – as measured by non-financial M1 and M3 – were zero and 3.3% annualised respectively in May.
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Sunak’s summer election twist could boost UK equities
juin 27, 2024 | Gestion d’actifs Global Alpha Ltée
Labour’s housing and green energy plans may help drive up the market.
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