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China’s and India’s diverging fortunes open up opportunities for investors to profit in the delta between reality and expectations.

“Gangbusters” UK GDP growth of 0.6% in Q1 may partly reflect inadequate adjustments for the leap year and early timing of Easter. In any case, the bigger story in recent national accounts data is nominal deceleration.

Chinese money trends yet to reflect rates decline. Weak April money / credit numbers push back recovery hopes but six-month narrow money momentum remains above its December low, with recent lower yields suggesting improvement (see charts). Is the yen bottoming? The real effective rate is the lowest since the 1960s, Japan / US trade numbers […]

Economic and market implications from the upcoming elections and proposed policy shifts.

Surprising findings from our attendance at a mining & materials conference.

A post in February argued that US Treasury plans to reduce reliance on bills to fund the deficit implied weaker monetary expansion from Q2, with possible negative implications for markets and economic prospects. This scenario remains on track.

L’article fournit des renseignements généraux sur les enjeux et le rôle de la transition énergétique dans le contexte plus large des changements climatiques.

The Fed’s preferred core price measure – the PCE price index excluding food and energy – rose by an average 0.36% per month, equivalent to 4.4% annualised, over January-March. The FOMC median projection in March was for annual core inflation to fall to 2.6% in Q4 2024. This would require the monthly index rise to step down to an average 0.17% over the remainder of the year.

Key economic developments and investment prospects from our latest visit to these vibrant markets.

In our 1st quarter investor letter, we discuss our views on the MENA equity markets and the main return drivers for the strategy during the quarter.

In our 1st quarter investor letter, we discuss our views on frontier emerging markets and the main return drivers for the strategy over the period.

UK house prices were an estimated 52% expensive relative to history at the end of 2023, based on a comparison with rents and the real yield on index-linked gilts, a competing inflation-protected asset. The degree of overvaluation is below previous extremes and does not imply that house prices need to fall by an equivalent magnitude, or even at all – the deviation could be eliminated by rental growth and a reversal of the recent rise in real yields.

Examining global water issues and investments for sustainable management.

A modest upside inflation surprise in March has been portrayed as confirming that inflationary pressures remain sticky, warranting further delay in policy easing. The stickiness charge is bizarre in the context of recent aggregate data. The six-month rate of change of core consumer prices, seasonally adjusted, has fallen from a peak of 8.4% annualised in July 2023 to 2.4% in March.