Capabilities

Warren Stoddart, CC&L Financial Group’s President and CEO recently joined Rosemont CEO Chas Burkhart as a guest on the Global Investment Leaders podcast.

Eurozone / UK CPI momentum continues to normalise in line with the profile of broad money growth two years ago, a relationship suggesting a return of annual inflation to target in 2024 and an undershoot in 2025. The six-month annualised rate of increase of Eurozone consumer prices (ECB seasonally adjusted measure) was stable at 3.3% in September but core momentum (i.e. excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) posted another hefty fall from 4.0% to 3.4%, the lowest since January 2022.

Navigating regulatory risks: Why we’re cautious on AI and confident in sectors like salmon farming.

This is the first of a series of short posts focusing on whether incoming economic news supports or contradicts the forecast of a global “hard landing” suggested by monetary trends. Flash results suggest that the global composite PMI new orders index – a timely indicator of demand momentum – fell for a fourth month in September, consistent with the monetary signal of a slide into early 2024, at least.

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Explore the pet industry as an investment option, where love for pets can bring economic growth.

Global six-month real narrow money momentum is estimated to have broken to a new low in August, reinforcing pessimism here about economic prospects and casting strong doubt on now widely-held “soft landing” hopes. Real money momentum bottomed in July 2022, recovered during H2 but suffered a relapse in early 2023, retesting the 2022 low in April.

Rising natural disasters challenge insurance: are we ready for the financial fallout?

Exploring the stealthy rise of US deficits and the quiet shift in fiscal policy amid economic gains.

The drip feed of policy support in China continues.

A post in May suggested that UK employment would embark on a sustained decline in Q2. This was based on the stock of vacancies having fallen 17% from its 12-month peak – declines of more than 15% historically were always associated with sustained employment falls.

A “double dip” in the global economy suggested by monetary trends appears to be playing out, with weakness likely to intensify into late 2023. The global composite PMI new orders index – a timely coincident indicator – continued its decline from a May peak last month.

Pandemic-led boom in sneaker sales wanes.

Eurozone / UK July money numbers offer further support to the assessment here that ECB / Bank of England policy tightening has been excessive and – unless reversed swiftly – will cause unnecessarily severe economic weakness and a medium-term inflation undershoot. The latest releases are astonishing in several respects.

Why have global government bond yields picked up over the summer despite weakening PMIs and neutral / favourable inflation news? The rise is attributed here to a further deterioration in the global “excess” money backdrop driven partly by unexpected output strength as an easing of supply constraints has allowed firms to work off order backlogs.