Creating Conditions for Success

Warren Stoddart, CC&L Financial Group’s President and CEO recently joined Rosemont CEO Chas Burkhart as a guest on the Global Investment Leaders podcast.

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Global (i.e. G7 plus E7) six-month real narrow money momentum is estimated to have edged lower in September, based on monetary data covering 88% of the aggregate. Momentum has been moving sideways since the spring at a weak level by historical standards, suggesting that the global economy will expand at a below-trend pace through mid-2025. Note that the global narrow money measure incorporates an adjustment for a recent negative distortion to Chinese data from regulatory changes, i.e. momentum would be weaker than shown without this correction.

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The MPC’s slowness to cut rates risks aggravating a recent loss of economic momentum and prolonging an inflation undershoot. The expected 25 bp cut in November would be insufficient to catch up with reductions to date in the Eurozone, Sweden, Switzerland and Canada. UK annual headline consumer price inflation is as low or lower than in all these jurisdictions except Switzerland.

A post last month suggested that Chinese money growth was bottoming, based on year-to-date policy easing and the space for additional stimulus opened up by a stabilisation of the currency. September money numbers and recent policy announcements bolster this assessment but the scale of monetary acceleration is uncertain. As previously discussed, narrow money measures have been distorted by regulatory changes in April that reduced the attractiveness of demand deposits, arguing for giving greater weight to broader aggregates.

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Monetary prospects and cycle considerations suggest global economic strength in H2 2025 / 2026 but a “hard landing” – or at least a scare of one – may be necessary first. Commentary here at mid-year proposed the following baseline scenario: A “double dip” in global industrial momentum in H2 2024 with limited recovery in early 2025, reflecting the profile of real narrow money momentum with a roughly one-year lag.

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Monetary trends suggest that UK economic performance will converge down to a weak Eurozone. A post in June argued that Eurozone monetary trends were too weak to support a sustained recovery. The composite PMI output index peaked in May and fell below 50 in September (flash reading of 48.9), confirming an ongoing “double dip”.

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A pick-up in US narrow money momentum is a hopeful signal for 2025 but requires confirmation and does not preclude near-term economic deterioration. The measure of narrow money tracked here (M1A, comprising currency in circulation and demand deposits) rose by 0.8% in August, pushing six-month annualised growth up to 10.5%. The broad M2+ measure (which adds large time deposits at commercial banks and institutional money funds to the official M2 aggregate) also rose solidly in August, by 0.5%, but six-month growth remains subdued and within the recent range, at 3.5% annualised.

Chinese money / credit trends remain weak but could be at a turning point. Six-month rates of change of broad money and total social financing have stabilised above June lows. (Broad money here refers to M2 excluding money holdings of financial institutions, which are volatile and less informative about economic prospects.)