Is Eurozone “recovery” aborting?
June 28, 2024 | NS Partners
Eurozone money trends remain too weak to support an economic recovery. A relapse in the latest business surveys could mark the start of a “double dip”. Three-month rates of change of narrow and broad money – as measured by non-financial M1 and M3 – were zero and 3.3% annualised respectively in May.
Read More
Sunak’s summer election twist could boost UK equities
June 27, 2024 | Global Alpha Capital Management
Labour’s housing and green energy plans may help drive up the market.
Read More
To hedge, or not to hedge, that is the question
June 25, 2024 | Connor, Clark & Lunn Financial Group
When hedging currency exposure benefits Canadian investors and when it can be better to be unhedged.
Read More
Is the OECD’s US leading indicator rolling over?
June 25, 2024 | NS Partners
A recovery in the OECD’s US composite leading indicator could be reversing, in which case recent underperformance of cyclical equity market sectors versus defensives could extend. The OECD indicator receives less attention than the Conference Board US leading economic index but its historical performance compares favourably. The correlation coefficient of six-month rates of change is maximised with a two-month lag on the OECD indicator, i.e. the OECD measure slightly leads the Conference Board index.
Read More
One person’s trash is another’s treasure
June 20, 2024 | Global Alpha Capital Management
Exploring the lucrative opportunities and growth in the global waste management.
Read More
Chinese monetary update: distorted but still disappointing
June 19, 2024 | NS Partners
Chinese May money numbers were weak even allowing for a distortion from a recent regulatory change. The preferred narrow and broad aggregates here are “true M1” (which corrects the official M1 measure for the omission of household demand deposits) and “M2ex” (i.e. M2 excluding bank deposits held by other financial institutions – such deposits are volatile and less informative about economic prospects). Six-month rates of change of these measures fell to record lows in May.
Read More
Political risks in EM spike as Indian, South African and Mexican elections surprise
June 14, 2024 | NS Partners
Surprises in EM elections see political risks spiking.
Read More
Alarming Japanese monetary weakness
June 14, 2024 | NS Partners
The Bank of Japan’s attempt to withdraw policy accommodation is understandable but misguided. Monetary weakness suggests that the economy is on course to return to deflation. The BoJ’s difficulties stem from the inflationary policy mistake of the Fed and other G7 central banks in 2020-21.
Read More
Why copper theft is spiking and what it says about the future
June 13, 2024 | Global Alpha Capital Management
See what’s affecting copper prices and why this metal matters for future tech and investments.
Read More
Global monetary update: further details
June 7, 2024 | NS Partners
Previous posts suggested that a recovery in US money growth would stall in Q2 / Q3 as Fed QT was no longer offset by monetary deficit financing (at least temporarily). The broad M2+ measure – which adds large time deposits at commercial banks and institutional money funds to published M2 – fell by 0.1% in April, with available weekly data suggesting marginal growth in May. Unexpectedly, however, the narrow M1A measure tracked here – comprising currency in circulation and demand deposits – rose by a bumper 1.8% in April.
Read More
Enhancing grid stability through energy efficiency
June 6, 2024 | Global Alpha Capital Management
Powering efficiency and how AAON is cooling the grid.
Read More
Global monetary update: insufficient recovery
June 5, 2024 | NS Partners
Global (i.e., G7 plus E7) six-month real narrow money momentum returned to positive territory in March, consolidating in April. It has also crossed above six-month industrial output momentum, turning one measure of global “excess” money positive. Should investors, therefore, adopt a positive view of economic and market prospects?
Read More
UK “supercore” is a lagging inflation indicator
May 31, 2024 | NS Partners
The MPC’s forecast in November was that annual CPI inflation would average 3.5% in Q2 2024 (November 2023 Monetary Policy Report (MPR), modal forecast assuming unchanged 5.25% rates). April’s drop to 2.3%, therefore, might be considered cause for celebration.
Read More
From earnings season to allergy season
May 30, 2024 | Global Alpha Capital Management
This spring season, discover how allergy treatments could be a profitable investment.
Read More