L’argent, le moteur des marchés
Monetary news still weakening
20 octobre 2026 par Simon Ward
Early indications are that global six-month real narrow money momentum slowed again in September, possibly reaching its lowest level since late 2024 – see chart 1.
Chart 1
The projected decline was driven by weaker nominal money expansion, with CPI momentum little changed (though likely to rise in Q4).
The further fall in real money momentum, if confirmed, supports the forecast of a decline in global manufacturing PMI new orders through end-Q1 2027 (at least) – chart 2.
Chart 2
The mooted fall in the global measure reflects declines in China, Japan and India, with Brazil remaining weak – chart 3. The final September number will depend on US / Eurozone data released next week.
Chart 3
Global six-month industrial output growth may have recovered last month, based on solid US / Chinese data – chart 4. The shortfall of real money expansion versus output growth, therefore, may have widened sharply, suggesting an increased monetary headwind for markets.
Chart 4
