L’argent, le moteur des marchés
Global money update: US lift
07 août 2026 par Simon Ward
Global six-month real narrow money growth recovered further in June but remains below a February peak, as well as its long-term average – see chart 1.
Chart 1
The earlier slowdown suggested that the global industrial economy would lose some momentum during H2. A cooling may already have begun, with manufacturing PMI new orders easing for a third successive month in July. Still, the latest uptick in real money growth argues against significant weakness, at least through year-end.
The recent violent correction in momentum stocks followed global six-month real money growth – on both narrow and broad definitions – crossing below industrial output expansion in April, suggesting a loss of “excess” money support for markets. Real narrow money growth reconverged with output expansion in May / June, with real broad money growth slightly weaker – chart 2. This suggests a neutral monetary backdrop for markets, in contrast to positive conditions in late 2025 / early 2026.
Chart 2
The rise in real money growth has been driven by US acceleration / strength, contrasting with weakness in the rest of the G7 – chart 3. Such divergence is unhealthy, suggesting a misalignment of policy stances, a correction of which could lead to further monetary / market volatility.
Chart 3
