L’argent, le moteur des marchés
Global money update: cooler despite US
04 septembre 2026 par Simon Ward
Money trends suggest that global economic momentum is peaking in Q3, with downside risk focused on Europe and Japan.
The global manufacturing PMI new orders index rose in August, though remains below an April high – see chart 1.
Chart 1
The solid August result is consistent with a rise in global six-month real narrow money momentum into early 2026. Growth, however, has eased since February, suggesting a moderation in new orders over the remainder of the year.
A July fall in real money momentum reflected deepening contractions in Europe and Japan, which offset a further pick-up in the US – chart 2.
Chart 2
The suggestion is that the US economy is running hot with the Fed behind the curve, while ECB and BoJ policy tightening is misguided, risking a sharp economic slowdown, or worse.
Meanwhile, six-month growth of global real narrow money is estimated to have fallen below that of industrial output in July, implying a less favourable liquidity backdrop for markets – chart 3.
Chart 3
A previous undershoot in April preceded a sharp correction in momentum stocks but real money growth recovered to close the gap in May / June, following which equity indices reached new highs.
The global services PMI survey for August was stronger than for manufacturing, with new business reaching a 20-month high. Services buoyancy, however, has little implication for manufacturing prospects. Granger-causality tests show that manufacturing new orders predict services new business but not vice versa. Manufacturing deceleration is likely to be reflected in services cooling.
