Investing through the long run: Insights from endurance running
novembre 21, 2024 | Gestion d’actifs Global Alpha Ltée
What can endurance running teach us about successful investing?
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Is Trump really bearish for EM? Plus, stock picking in a China bull market
novembre 16, 2024 | NS Partners
A look at the potential impact of President Trump’s policies on emerging markets, the risks of rising trade tensions with China and the resilience of China’s domestic market.
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The ripple effect of US tariffs on global economies
novembre 14, 2024 | Gestion d’actifs Global Alpha Ltée
Unveiling the hidden costs of trade policy.
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Japanese money update: downside risks rising
novembre 14, 2024 | NS Partners
Japanese money trends remain ominously weak, suggesting poor economic / market prospects and a return of inflation to unacceptably low levels.
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Assessing “excess” liquidity: reasons for caution
novembre 8, 2024 | NS Partners
Flow and stock measures of “excess” money cast doubt on claims that the liquidity backdrop for markets is unusually favourable.
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It’s time to make small cap great again
novembre 7, 2024 | Gestion d’actifs Global Alpha Ltée
Is now the chance for small caps to shine?
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Red or blue: How will the US election colour the markets?
octobre 31, 2024 | Gestion d’actifs Global Alpha Ltée
How will the US election results impact markets?
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Global money update: weak signal with US still diverging
octobre 30, 2024 | NS Partners
Global (i.e. G7 plus E7) six-month real narrow money momentum is estimated to have edged lower in September, based on monetary data covering 88% of the aggregate. Momentum has been moving sideways since the spring at a weak level by historical standards, suggesting that the global economy will expand at a below-trend pace through mid-2025. Note that the global narrow money measure incorporates an adjustment for a recent negative distortion to Chinese data from regulatory changes, i.e. momentum would be weaker than shown without this correction.
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The rise of J-beauty
octobre 24, 2024 | Gestion d’actifs Global Alpha Ltée
Japanese skin care and cosmetics are a top choice in today’s clean beauty trends, driving global expansion.
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UK rates: the case for 50
octobre 23, 2024 | NS Partners
The MPC’s slowness to cut rates risks aggravating a recent loss of economic momentum and prolonging an inflation undershoot. The expected 25 bp cut in November would be insufficient to catch up with reductions to date in the Eurozone, Sweden, Switzerland and Canada. UK annual headline consumer price inflation is as low or lower than in all these jurisdictions except Switzerland.
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Chinese money growth recovery under way
octobre 18, 2024 | NS Partners
A post last month suggested that Chinese money growth was bottoming, based on year-to-date policy easing and the space for additional stimulus opened up by a stabilisation of the currency. September money numbers and recent policy announcements bolster this assessment but the scale of monetary acceleration is uncertain. As previously discussed, narrow money measures have been distorted by regulatory changes in April that reduced the attractiveness of demand deposits, arguing for giving greater weight to broader aggregates.
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Slowing the countdown to Day Zero
octobre 17, 2024 | Gestion d’actifs Global Alpha Ltée
Addressing Earth’s shrinking water supply.
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Does the China rally have legs?
octobre 16, 2024 | NS Partners
Beijing signals a new approach to policy – how far will policymakers go to boost growth?
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A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
octobre 11, 2024 | NS Partners
Monetary prospects and cycle considerations suggest global economic strength in H2 2025 / 2026 but a “hard landing” – or at least a scare of one – may be necessary first. Commentary here at mid-year proposed the following baseline scenario: A “double dip” in global industrial momentum in H2 2024 with limited recovery in early 2025, reflecting the profile of real narrow money momentum with a roughly one-year lag.
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