L’argent, le moteur des marchés
Weaker monetary news
20 janvier 2026 par Simon Ward
Chinese economic growth held up in H2 2025 but a fall in six-month real narrow money momentum in November-December suggests weakening prospects – see chart 1.
Chart 1
December money numbers are also available for Brazil, India and Japan, showing declines in momentum for the former two, with Japan remaining negative.
US and European data will be released next week. Assuming unchanged growth rates, the above information implies a significant fall in global (i.e. G7 plus E7) six-month real narrow money momentum, retracing much of the July-November recovery – chart 2.
Chart 2
Global real money momentum may be about to cross beneath six-month industrial output growth, which rose into November.
Chart 3 shows a long-term comparison of G7-only real narrow money and industrial output momentum, using 12- rather than six-month rates of change. The series converged in November, supporting the suggestion of a change in “excess” money conditions.
Chart 3
Signs of a narrow money slowdown, albeit tentative, are consistent with the negative cyclical view here, based on an expectation that the global stockbuilding cycle will enter a downswing this year into a possible H1 2027 low.
