Warren Stoddart joins Chas Burkhart on the Global Investment Leaders podcast
September 22, 2022 | Connor, Clark & Lunn Financial Group
Warren Stoddart, CC&L Financial Group’s President and CEO recently joined Rosemont CEO Chas Burkhart as a guest on the Global Investment Leaders podcast.
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Global “double dip” on track
August 23, 2024 | NS Partners
The assessment here remains that the global economy has entered a “double dip” currently focused on manufacturing but likely to extend to services / labour markets, reigniting worries about a hard landing. Economic weakness is expected to be accompanied by an inflation undershoot into H1 2025. DM flash manufacturing PMI results for August were mixed across countries but on balance weak, suggesting a further small reduction in global manufacturing PMI new orders following a July plunge to below 50 (assuming no change for China and other non-flash countries).
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Singapore’s unique position in Asia
August 22, 2024 | Global Alpha Capital Management
How Singapore’s growth-oriented path sets it apart from many neighbours.
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Does soaring volatility mark regime change in markets?
August 16, 2024 | NS Partners
Signs of rotation in equities as global volatility picks up – will we see new winners emerge?
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Chinese monetary update: crunch time
August 16, 2024 | NS Partners
The most important issue in the global economic outlook is the meaning of Chinese monetary weakness. Six-month rates of change of narrow / broad money, bank lending and total social financing (on both new and old definitions*) reached record lows in June / July.
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Q2 2024 Outlook: A spike in volatility during a quiet summer
August 15, 2024 | CC&L Investment Management
Markets have seen a spike in volatility during a quiet summer. Where do we go from here?
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Japan in the 80s and the US today – bubbles in both cases?
August 8, 2024 | Global Alpha Capital Management
Drawing parallels between Japanese markets in the late 80s and US markets today.
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Services to the rescue?
August 8, 2024 | NS Partners
A sharp fall in the global manufacturing PMI new orders index in July confirms renewed industrial weakness. The companion services survey, however, reported an uptick in the new business component, which is close to its post-GFC average.
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FEM Q2 2024 Manager Letter
August 7, 2024 | Vergent Asset Management
In our 2nd quarter investor letter, we discuss our views on frontier emerging markets and the main return drivers for the strategy over the period.
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MENA Q2 2024 Manager Letter
August 7, 2024 | Vergent Asset Management
In our 2nd quarter investor letter, we discuss our views on the MENA equity markets and the main return drivers for the strategy during the quarter.
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OECD US leading indicator signalling weaker outlook
August 7, 2024 | NS Partners
A post in June suggested that a recovery in the OECD’s US composite leading indicator was ending. A calculation based on the latest input data confirms a reversal lower. The historical performance of the OECD indicator compares favourably with the Conference Board leading index
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Unfavourable PMI precedents
August 2, 2024 | NS Partners
Manufacturing PMI results for July support the forecast of a global “double dip” into early 2025.
The global manufacturing PMI new orders index plunged by 1.9 points from June to 48.8, a seven-month low.
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The BoJ’s new Keynesian gamble – third time unlucky?
August 1, 2024 | NS Partners
Will the Bank of Japan’s latest attempt to exit ZIRP prove any more successful than its previous two efforts, in 2000 and 2006? The monetary backdrop is no more promising. The six-month rate of change of broad money M3 was 0.5% annualised in June compared with 1.3% and -1.1% respectively before the August 2000 and July 2006 rate hikes.
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Global money growth stall extends as PMIs soften
July 26, 2024 | NS Partners
Global six-month real narrow money momentum – a key indicator in the forecasting process followed here – is estimated to have moved sideways for a third month in June, based on monetary data covering 85% of the aggregate. Real money momentum has recovered from a September 2023 low but remains below both its long-run average and the average in the 10 years preceding the GFC, when short-term interest rates were closer to recent levels. The expectation here has been that the fall into the September 2023 low would be reflected in a weakening of global industrial momentum into late 2024.
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Upcoming earning season and fund flows
July 25, 2024 | Global Alpha Capital Management
Learn the effects of investor positioning and risk on small caps in the new political environment.
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