Global money growth stall extends as PMIs soften
July 26, 2024 | NS Partners
Global six-month real narrow money momentum – a key indicator in the forecasting process followed here – is estimated to have moved sideways for a third month in June, based on monetary data covering 85% of the aggregate. Real money momentum has recovered from a September 2023 low but remains below both its long-run average and the average in the 10 years preceding the GFC, when short-term interest rates were closer to recent levels. The expectation here has been that the fall into the September 2023 low would be reflected in a weakening of global industrial momentum into late 2024.
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Upcoming earning season and fund flows
July 25, 2024 | Global Alpha Capital Management
Learn the effects of investor positioning and risk on small caps in the new political environment.
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Should record Chinese monetary weakness be discounted?
July 17, 2024 | NS Partners
Chinese money trends are puzzling but ominous, suggesting – at a minimum – that the economy will remain weak through H2. Q2 real GDP growth came in below expectations but there was better news on the nominal side: two-quarter nominal GDP expansion rose for a second quarter as the GDP deflator stabilised. This improvement tallies with a recovery in six-month rates of change of narrow money and broad credit around end-2023.
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Are emerging markets on the cusp of a “virtuous circle”?
July 17, 2024 | NS Partners
Improving global monetary data and signs of a dollar peak bode well for EM returns.
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What would the historical Fed do?
July 11, 2024 | NS Partners
An analysis of the Fed’s historical behaviour suggests that the conditions for policy easing are in place. Chart 1 shows the fitted values and current prediction of a logit probability model for classifying months according to whether the Fed is in policy-tightening or policy-easing mode. The model’s determination for a particular month depends on values of annual core PCE inflation, the unemployment rate and the ISM manufacturing delivery delays index known at the end of the first week of the month (i.e. after the release of the employment report for the prior month).
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ESG isn’t tree hugging, it’s smart finance
July 4, 2024 | Global Alpha Capital Management
Five longstanding ESG themes that predate responsible investing.
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A “monetarist” perspective on current equity markets
July 4, 2024 | NS Partners
Monetary analysis suggests that the global economy will weaken into early 2025, while inflation will continue to decline. A cyclical forecasting framework, on the other hand, points to the possibility of strong economic growth in H2 2025 and 2026.
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International Equity Strategy Commentary
June 30, 2024 | NS Partners
Commentary for Q1 2022 on the International Equity Strategy
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Global Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Commentary
June 30, 2024 | NS Partners
Commentary for Q1 2022 on the Global Emerging Markets Equity Strategy
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Quarterly Liquidity Insights
June 30, 2024 | NS Partners
Q2 2024 Quarterly Market Liquidity for Emerging Markets
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Is Eurozone “recovery” aborting?
June 28, 2024 | NS Partners
Eurozone money trends remain too weak to support an economic recovery. A relapse in the latest business surveys could mark the start of a “double dip”. Three-month rates of change of narrow and broad money – as measured by non-financial M1 and M3 – were zero and 3.3% annualised respectively in May.
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Sunak’s summer election twist could boost UK equities
June 27, 2024 | Global Alpha Capital Management
Labour’s housing and green energy plans may help drive up the market.
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To hedge, or not to hedge, that is the question
June 25, 2024 | Connor, Clark & Lunn Financial Group
When hedging currency exposure benefits Canadian investors and when it can be better to be unhedged.
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Is the OECD’s US leading indicator rolling over?
June 25, 2024 | NS Partners
A recovery in the OECD’s US composite leading indicator could be reversing, in which case recent underperformance of cyclical equity market sectors versus defensives could extend. The OECD indicator receives less attention than the Conference Board US leading economic index but its historical performance compares favourably. The correlation coefficient of six-month rates of change is maximised with a two-month lag on the OECD indicator, i.e. the OECD measure slightly leads the Conference Board index.
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