Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée

Au cœur de notre organisation se trouvent l’engagement et le désir d’offrir un rendement et un service supérieurs à nos clients. Notre principal objectif est de répondre aux attentes de nos clients tout en nous assurant que notre équipe est très motivée et enthousiaste. Pour y arriver, nous nous concentrons sur ce que nous faisons de mieux tout en cherchant à demeurer à l’avant-garde de la recherche et du développement sur les marchés des capitaux.

Le statu quo n’est pas une option

Chaque année, nous profitons de l’occasion pour fournir à nos clients une revue annuelle de l’entreprise, décrivant comment nous orientons nos efforts au sein de Gestion de placements Connor, Clark & Lunn (CC&L) pour respecter notre engagement à offrir un bon rendement des placements et un service à la clientèle supérieur.

Nos activités ont toujours été caractérisées par un réinvestissement continu et l’innovation; le statu quo n’est pas une option. Alors que nous composons avec un contexte financier et politique volatil, nous avons concentré nos efforts sur trois domaines de base qui sont essentiels à la vigueur et à la durabilité à long terme de notre société : notre personnel, nos capacités technologiques et notre infrastructure physique.

Notre investissement le plus important est dans notre équipe. En 2025, nous avons accueilli 28 nouveaux collègues au sein de la société et nous prévoyons en ajouter environ le même nombre en 2026. Ces ajouts touchent les fonctions de placement et du service à la clientèle, ce qui renforce à la fois nos capacités actuelles et le développement de notre relève. Cette croissance reflète notre engagement à bâtir une entreprise durable d’une génération à l’autre. En investissant dans le perfectionnement des talents, la planification de la relève et l’accompagnement de notre prochaine génération, nous veillons à ce que nos clients continuent de profiter d’une organisation solide, stable et tournée vers l’avenir.

La technologie est le deuxième pilier de notre stratégie de réinvestissement. Nous procédons à la modernisation des systèmes dans l’ensemble de nos fonctions de soutien et des opérations intermédiaires afin de renforcer la résilience opérationnelle, d’améliorer l’intégration des données et d’élargir nos capacités de production de rapports. Ces améliorations renforcent l’infrastructure qui soutient nos processus de placement et la prestation du service à la clientèle. Parallèlement, nous élaborons une approche rigoureuse en matière d’intelligence artificielle (IA). Notre stratégie vise à permettre à chaque secteur de nos activités de tirer parti des outils et de la technologie d’IA pour améliorer les processus de placement et d’affaires. L’introduction d’outils d’IA exige une surveillance adéquate et délibérée. Peu importe la complexité et le niveau de sophistication de l’intégration de l’IA, nos employés restent chargés de garantir la qualité et la pertinence des résultats et assument la responsabilité finale de chaque fonction.

Enfin, nous effectuons des investissements importants dans nos bureaux à Vancouver et à Toronto. Ces améliorations visent à créer des environnements qui favorisent la collaboration, la créativité et la connexion. Nos espaces remaniés soutiennent le travail d’équipe, le dialogue interfonctionnel et un engagement plus fort au sein des équipes de placement, des solutions clients et des opérations. L’objectif est de créer des conditions qui permettront de remettre en question, de peaufiner et de mettre en œuvre les idées de façon efficace, ce qui profitera à nos clients. Nous avons hâte d’accueillir les clients dans nos nouveaux bureaux en 2026 et de partager ces espaces actualisés en personne.

En terminant, je tiens à remercier sincèrement nos clients de leur confiance et de leur partenariat soutenu.

Sincères salutations,

Martin Gerber
Président et chef des placements

Notre équipe

En 2025, notre société a continué de croître, accueillant 28 nouveaux employés et portant notre effectif à 150 personnes. Nos activités profitent également de l’ensemble du Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn, qui emploie plus de 500 professionnels soutenant la gestion des affaires, l’exploitation, le marketing et la distribution.

La stabilité et les spécialisations de notre société demeurent les principaux moteurs de nos activités. La planification de la relève et le perfectionnement professionnel sont au cœur de notre approche, assurant la continuité et la réussite à long terme.

Nous sommes heureux d’annoncer que plusieurs employés ont été promus au poste de directeur principal depuis le 1er janvier 2026, en reconnaissance de leur contribution importante et croissante à notre société.

Le conseil d’administration de CC&L est également heureux d’annoncer la promotion de nouveaux actionnaires depuis le 1er janvier 2026, en reconnaissance de leur leadership et de leur influence dans leurs fonctions.

Titres à revenu fixe

Au cours de la dernière décennie, l’équipe des titres à revenu fixe a investi considérablement dans l’élaboration d’un cadre quantitatif visant à repérer et à récolter des primes intéressantes sur les marchés des titres à revenu fixe, d’abord dans le cadre de stratégies relatives à un indice de référence, puis dans des mandats à rendement absolu. Comme ces flux de rendement systématiques se sont révélés à la fois attrayants et diversifiés, la demande des clients pour des solutions spécialisées a commencé à croître. En réponse, l’équipe fait évoluer ces capacités vers des stratégies quantitatives spécialisées, pouvant être mises en œuvre soit comme solutions de rendement total, soit comme source d’alpha portable venant s’ajouter à une gamme complète de sources de rendement de marché. Nous continuons d’investir dans la recherche, les infrastructures et les talents pour approfondir ces capacités et soutenir l’intérêt croissant des clients pour des sources de rendement résilientes et diversifiées dans différentes conjonctures de marché.

Sandy McArthur s’est joint à l’équipe des titres à revenu fixe en mai 2025 et est rapidement devenu un moteur central des initiatives stratégiques à l’échelle de la plateforme. Il allie une solide expérience du marché à une grande maîtrise technique, ce qui permet à l’équipe d’agir plus rapidement et de mener ses activités avec davantage de rigueur. Sa ténacité, ses compétences interfonctionnelles et sa volonté de prendre en charge des dossiers complexes ont déjà eu une incidence importante sur l’entreprise. Nous sommes heureux de l’accueillir à titre d’actionnaire en 2026.

Stratégies fondamentales d’actions

Après plus d’une décennie de surperformance des actions américaines, l’équipe estime que le marché boursier canadien est bien placé pour enregistrer des rendements supérieurs à moyen terme. Les valorisations intéressantes, la répartition sectorielle différenciée et une forte exposition à la hausse de la demande mondiale de produits de matières premières créent un contexte attrayant pour les actions canadiennes.

L’équipe des Stratégies fondamentales d’actions continue de soutenir les objectifs de placement des clients dans l’ensemble des mandats. Dans ce qui a été un contexte difficile pour les gestionnaires actifs en 2025, toutes les stratégies, y compris les actions canadiennes toutes capitalisations, les actions axées sur le revenu et les actions à petite capitalisation, ont produit un rendement dans le quartile supérieur par rapport à leurs pairs respectifs.

Pendant plusieurs années, l’équipe des Stratégies fondamentales d’actions met l’accent sur le développement de la prochaine génération de relève en placement. Au cours des 12 derniers mois, trois associés de recherche expérimentés se sont joints à l’équipe, renforçant davantage ses capacités de recherche. Ce réinvestissement délibéré souligne l’engagement de l’équipe à maintenir le rendement, à approfondir l’analyse et à maintenir un avantage concurrentiel par rapport à ses pairs à long terme. Parallèlement, l’équipe met activement en œuvre le plan de relève de Gary Baker. Le 1er janvier 2026, Michael McPhillips a été nommé co-chef des placements aux côtés de M. Baker. Ils se partagent ainsi la responsabilité de la stratégie d’actions, de la gestion des portefeuilles et de l’orientation globale des placements. En 2027, Michael occupera le poste de chef des placements, tandis que Gary passera à un rôle-conseil, assurant ainsi la continuité, le mentorat et une transition harmonieuse. Michael s’est joint au conseil d’administration de CC&L en 2026, succédant à Gary.

Stratégies quantitatives d’actions

L’année 2025 a été solide pour l’équipe des Stratégies quantitatives d’actions. L’équipe a atteint ou dépassé les objectifs de valeur ajoutée dans l’ensemble de ses stratégies clés, s’appuyant sur des antécédents de rendement à long terme éprouvés, avec une croissance soutenue de la clientèle et des actifs sous gestion. Pour soutenir cette croissance, l’équipe a continué d’accroître ses capacités, passant à 92 membres, avec 21 nouveaux employés en 2025. Des professionnels en placement ont été ajoutés à l’ensemble des sous-équipes au cours de l’année, et les investissements dans les ressources de leadership des sous-équipes se poursuivront à un rythme semblable cette année. La croissance soutenue de l’équipe témoigne de la nécessité d’élargir et de réinvestir continuellement dans nos capacités, puisque la taille et la portée des activités de gestion quantitative ont augmenté. Par ailleurs, l’accent est demeuré mis sur la mise en œuvre de points de vue différenciés, avec une mise à jour du modèle de placement qui a été déployée avec succès en novembre.

Afin de soutenir les clients sur les marchés internationaux, nous avons élargi la structure de nos fonds en gestion commune. Cela comprend notre plateforme de fonds OPCVM établie en Europe et destinée aux investisseurs non américains, une plateforme de fiducie de placement collectif (CIT) aux États-Unis destinée aux régimes de retraite réglementés par l’ERISA, une plateforme aux îles Caïmans pour les investisseurs américains et d’autres investisseurs mondiaux admissibles, et une plateforme de fonds de sociétés en commandite pour les investisseurs américains admissibles. Cet investissement nous permettra de servir une clientèle plus vaste.

Solutions clients

Conformément à la croissance de nos activités, l’équipe des Solutions clients a continué de croître. Tim Elliott s’est joint à l’équipe en juin. Il occupait auparavant le poste de président et chef de la direction de Fonds Connor, Clark & Lunn Inc., une filiale spécialisée dans la gestion de patrimoine pour les particuliers qu’il a fondée au sein du Groupe financier CC&L il y a 15 ans. Tim a immédiatement eu une incidence positive sur nos activités, en apportant ses analyses et son expertise des marchés des services aux particuliers et de la gestion de patrimoine, et en renforçant le leadership au sein de l’équipe. Il est devenu actionnaire en 2026.

Investissement responsable

L’année 2025 marquait le passage d’une décennie depuis la création du comité ESG de CC&L. Par conséquent, notre conseil d’administration a jugé approprié d’entreprendre un examen du mandat et de la structure de gouvernance du comité. Le résultat de cet engagement a permis de confirmer que nous conservons la structure et les ressources appropriées pour atteindre nos objectifs en matière d’investissement responsable et de conclure qu’aucun changement important n’était justifié.

Nouvelles de l’entreprise

Actif sous gestion

L’actif sous gestion de CC&L a augmenté de 35 milliards de dollars canadiens en 2025 pour s’établir à 112 milliards de dollars canadiens au 31 décembre 2025. Nous sommes heureux d’annoncer que notre activité s’est développée grâce aux mandats de nouveaux clients répartis dans toutes les équipes de placement. En 2025, CC&L a accueilli plus de 100 nouveaux clients et a obtenu 19 mandats supplémentaires de la part de clients existants. La plupart des nouveaux mandats visaient des stratégies quantitatives d’actions pour des investisseurs institutionnels mondiaux.

Nous sommes fiers de recevoir le prix Coalition Greenwich 2025 : Meilleur gestionnaire d’actifs pour les investisseurs institutionnels au Canada*. Ce prix reflète l’excellence pour ce qui est du rendement des placements et du service à la clientèle, selon l’indice de qualité Greenwich.

Mot de la fin

Nous sommes sincèrement reconnaissants de la confiance et du soutien de nos clients et partenaires d’affaires. Nous avons hâte de continuer à vous aider à atteindre vos objectifs de placement au cours des prochaines années.

* Tout au long de 2025, Crisil Coalition Greenwich a mené des entrevues auprès de 147 des plus grands régimes de retraite privés et publics, institutions financières, fonds de dotation et fondations au Canada et dans d’autres régions du monde. On a demandé aux principaux spécialistes de fonds de fournir des évaluations détaillées de leurs gestionnaires de placement, des évaluations des gestionnaires qui sollicitent leurs affaires et des renseignements sur les tendances importantes du marché. Gestion de placements Connor, Clark & Lunn n’a versé aucune rémunération à Crisil Coalition Greenwich pour ce sondage.

The technology that harnesses wind and solar power is highly noticeable at a glance – it is hard to miss towering wind turbines or gleaming fields of solar panels. But what is not so obvious is how the power gets from those visible generators into the electrical grid that eventually powers your home.

Nexans S.A. (NEX FP) is increasingly emerging as a differentiated way to play the next phase of the energy transition, where the focus shifts from building renewable capacity to connecting it at scale.

While the first wave of the energy transition was defined by rapid growth in wind and solar generation, the current phase is more complex: integrating that capacity into power systems. This is where Nexans sits – at the intersection of renewable buildout and the infrastructure required to make it usable.

Europe’s plan for energy security

In this context, offshore wind is becoming a central driver of demand once again. Following a period of delays linked to cost inflation and project economics, Europe is now moving to re-accelerate deployment. At the January 2026 North Sea Summit, governments committed to developing ~100GW of offshore wind capacity, with a longer-term ambition of 300GW by 2050, alongside coordinated investments in cross-border grid infrastructure.

This renewed momentum is not just about decarbonization, it is increasingly tied to energy security and affordability. European policymakers are prioritizing domestically generated electricity to reduce dependence on imports, while structurally higher and more volatile power prices continue to incentivize investment in renewable capacity.

Nexans ready to support Europe’s wind commitments

For Nexans, offshore wind is particularly attractive. Each project requires significant volumes of high-voltage subsea export cables and increasingly complex interconnection solutions, positioning cable suppliers as critical enablers of deployment. As projects scale and networks become more integrated, demand is shifting toward higher-specification, higher-margin systems areas where Nexans has strong technological capabilities.

At the same time, the company’s strategic repositioning over recent years has sharpened this exposure. By exiting more commoditized cable activities and focusing on electrification and high-voltage segments, Nexans has aligned its portfolio with the fastest-growing and most structurally supported parts of the market.

Buying local – Nexans is Europe-based

This is further reinforced by an evolving policy backdrop in Europe. The EU’s industrial strategy is increasingly incorporating local content requirements and procurement incentives aimed at strengthening domestic manufacturing in key energy technologies. For a Europe-based player like Nexans, this creates a supportive competitive environment, particularly in large-scale infrastructure linked to renewables.

Importantly, supply dynamics remain favourable. High-voltage subsea cable capacity is limited globally, with long lead times and high technical barriers to expansion. As offshore wind deployment accelerates again, this constraint is likely to support pricing and contract discipline across the industry.

Disciplined execution, rising returns

The key focus for investors is increasingly on Nexans’ ability to translate strong structural demand into consistent and higher-quality earnings. As the group continues to prioritize selective project execution and disciplined contract structures, visibility on margins and cash generation is improving. This reflects a more mature operating model, with greater emphasis on value over volume and a clear focus on returns.

In that context, Nexans offers a differentiated exposure to renewables, not through generation itself, but through the critical systems that enable renewable electricity to be delivered, scaled and monetized. As Europe enters a renewed phase of offshore wind expansion and electrification, the company may be well positioned to capture both growth and improving returns.

Monetary trends suggest that US economic prospects were improving relative to the Eurozone before the Gulf War III energy shock.

US six-month real narrow money growth rose to its highest since September 2024 last month – see chart 1. (The M1A aggregate used here – comprising currency in circulation and demand deposits – has been adjusted for a previously discussed distortion to November / December deposit data.)

Chart 1

Comparable Eurozone growth, by contrast, eased slightly, resulting in the US taking the lead for the first time since June. Japanese momentum was stable in negative territory, while UK February money numbers have yet to be released.

Global – i.e. G7 plus E7 – six-month real narrow money growth is estimated to have been little changed from January’s high, based on monetary data covering 88% of the aggregate – chart 2. So global economic momentum appears to have been on course to hold up through Q3 before the Gulf War III shock.

Chart 2

An early, sharp reversal in real money growth is in prospect, however, as the energy shock boosts six-month consumer price momentum. Higher interest rates, meanwhile, will likely slow nominal money expansion.

Real money trends, therefore, may be moving into alignment with a forecast based on cycle analysis of significant economic weakness in H2 2026-2027.

The Gulf War III mortgage rate shock may be the trigger for the long-term housing cycle to enter its “bust” phase.

The driving variable of the cycle is demand for new and existing homes. This is reflected in turnover and has secondary impacts on new construction and prices. Prices usually lag volume gauges of the cycle.

The UK cycle can be traced back in various indicators to the early 18^th century (at least) – see chart 1. Official statistics on turnover – property transactions – start in 1959. Turnover is closely correlated with the number of approved or actual loans for house purchase, data for which begin in the interwar period. To go back further, it is necessary to rely on completions data, a regional (Middlesex) series on registrations of property deeds and an indirect gauge, imports of timber, for the earliest years.

Chart 1

The dates in the chart are suggested timings of housing cycle lows. Based on these dates, there were 16 complete cycles, measured from low to low, over the 298 years between 1711 and 2009, implying an average cycle length of 18.6 years.

The two cycle downswings in the first half of the 20^th century were magnified and extended by the World Wars – it is reasonable to assume that the lows would otherwise have occurred several years earlier.

The three completed cycles since WW2 were of similar length – 18, 18 and 17 years respectively. If the current cycle were to conform to the 18.6-year long-term average, another low would be reached in 2027-2028.

Chart 2 shows higher-frequency data on property transactions and mortgage approvals. The peak of the current cycle, in 2021, occurred earlier than in the prior two, as pandemic-related policy stimulus pulled forward demand. Activity corrected sharply in 2022-23 as interest rates rose but staged a partial recovery in 2024-25. This appears to have ended, with mortgage approvals easing to a 23-month low in January.

Chart 2

The new buyer enquiries component of the RICS housing survey is correlated with the annual rate of change of mortgage approvals – chart 3. Buyer demand is likely to weaken in response to the mortgage rate shock, suggesting a further / faster decline in approvals.

Chart 3

The rate of change of approvals, in turn, leads the rate of change of annual house price inflation – chart 4. Falling approvals suggest that annual price momentum – 1.4% in January, according to the ONS index – will slow further, probably turning negative.

Chart 4

Housebuilding stocks are behaving consistently with the onset of the bust phase of the cycle, recently breaking below their 2022 trough to reach the lowest level since 2013 – chart 5.

Chart 5

The Gulf War III energy shock has been compounded by a dramatic repricing of interest rate expectations, partly reflecting hawkish central bank communications, particularly from the ECB and Bank of England.

The central banks fear a repeat of the inflation upsurge around the Russian invasion of Ukraine, their accepted wisdom being that higher energy prices destabilised inflation expectations, resulting in significant “second-round” effects.

The “monetarist” view is that the impact of a shock on price- and wage-setting depends on the prevailing monetary environment. The Russia-Ukraine shock generated large second-round effects because it occurred against a backdrop of strong money growth. Eurozone and UK broad money – as measured by non-financial M3 and M4 – rose by 9.1% and 10.5% annualised respectively in the preceding two years – see chart 1.

Chart 1

The latest two-year growth rates, by contrast, are 3.2% and 3.9%, with little sign of acceleration in shorter-term data. Money to nominal GDP ratios have returned to around end-2019 levels. Unlike in 2022, there is no monetary “excess” to accommodate a sustained inflation rise.

Policy tightening against this backdrop would likely result in much more serious economic weakness than in 2022-23, with attendant risk of a medium-term inflation undershoot.

One caveat to a relaxed view of second-round effects is that political pressure to respond to a new cost-of-living shock could trigger a fiscal / funding crisis, forcing a return to QE that results in another money growth surge. Still, the suspension of central bank independence implied by such a scenario will be more likely if officials compound their 2021-22 policy error by making the opposite mistake now.

In-depth macro analysis has always been a cornerstone of this process, based on an understanding that emerging markets are highly sensitive to macro shocks which can overwhelm ostensibly solid company fundamentals. The outbreak of conflict following US and Israeli strikes to take out the Iranian regime is one such event, and has sparked violent moves in markets. Our macroeconomic analysis and risk controls are crucial in helping to navigate a volatile environment.

The approach to macroeconomic analysis here is disciplined and incremental, and does not involve the type of Hail Mary calls (i.e., speculating on President Trump’s war aims) that get market pundits invitations onto Bloomberg and CNBC. Our approach to forming a top-down view of our markets is to mark the direction of travel, whether it be our monetary indicators or more qualitative factors such as politics and institutional quality. We marshal all of these data points into one number which rates the level of conviction for a country with 1 being the highest level of conviction corresponding with a maximum overweight (key caveat: provided we can find the right stocks that fit our process), and 5 being lowest (meaning no exposure at all). As the data changes, we will tweak that level of conviction, which should be tightly aligned with adjustments made in the portfolio.

This work is designed to help us understand how the investment environment is changing through cycles, structural change and theme-driven liquidity. Through this context, we can get a sense of what types of businesses are likely to be rewarded in a given environment and adjust the portfolio accordingly.

Test and re-test

We are big subscribers to the insights of psychologist and writer, Phillip Tetlock, who is an expert on forecasting. His studies found that the best long-term forecasters are those who are able to make probabilistic estimates, calibrate, learn and update beliefs frequently. They make many small corrections to their analysis as fresh data arrives, which leads to better long-run accuracy than rigid “set and forget” predictions. This is the forecasting approach we adopt in both our macro and company analysis, illustrated in our process diagram below.

Through periods of high uncertainty and violent market moves like what we have currently, we lean heavily into this OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) Loop. This involves a constant testing and re-testing of our macro views and investment hypotheses, and tweaking of the portfolio as conditions change.

Example: lifting oil exposure

Moving from being zero weight in oil companies at the start of 2026 to equal weight (and with more beta to oil than the index) by the end of February is one example of how iterative tweaks in our macro analysis left the portfolio in a better position to weather the events of early March.

Towards the end of last year, one of the most debated topics of discussion in the team was our heavy underweight to the energy sector and, in particular, oil. Our only energy holding at the end of 2025 was uranium miner CGN.

While we remain structurally cautious about oil’s long-term investment prospects, from a portfolio risk perspective we became concerned that having no oil exposure had turned into a crowded consensus trade – especially as weak prices began to squeeze US shale production. This alongside news of a US naval build up in the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea and Eastern Mediterranean early in the year suggested the portfolio was exposed to risk of a geopolitical shock in the region. Through January and February, we gradually lifted our oil exposure from zero to an equal weight of over 3.5%.

While our macro and risk analysis helped to identify a potential vulnerability, we could not know that conflict was about to break out in early March and drive such a dramatic hike in the price of oil. It was not a case of just adding oil beta to the portfolio. We added Argentinian shale oil producer Vista Energy and Petrochina based on their healthy returns on invested capital sustainable even through weak pricing environments, underpinned by growing production profiles, capital discipline and low lifting costs.

Vista Energy: Production growth and falling lifting costs driving earnings growth

Source: Vista Energy Investor Relations 2026

The lift to oil exposure was timely, helping to preserve relative gains made this year despite sharp drawdowns in other winning positions that had been hit by broad risk-off sentiment.

Where to from here?

We rated the global monetary backdrop as modestly supportive coming into this shock, largely reflecting favourable trends in EM. However, we have been expecting the global stockbuilding cycle to turn down during 2026, giving us a bias to increase defensive positioning at the margin, especially on any signs of monetary weakness.

The energy price spike, unless swiftly reversed, will push up inflation and squeeze real money growth. It is leading to a revision of expectations for central bank policies, which may dampen nominal money growth. Nominal money trends are also at risk from recent tightening in US private credit conditions, which the current shock may exacerbate.

We are cautious and do not expect the negative effects of this shock will be swift to reverse, so our inclination is to add to defensive positioning on any rally, rather than to view current market weakness as a buying opportunity.

The long-standing forecast here has been that the three key global economic cycles – stockbuilding, business investment and housing – would enter downswings by 2026-27.

In the event that the downswings were synchronised, the result would be a major recession, on the scale of 1974-75 or 2008-09.

If the downswings occurred successively, the result would be a long period of rolling weakness including a less severe recession – the early 1990s scenario.

Chart 1 is an exhibit used in 2018, suggesting – based on average cycle timings – a recession bottoming in 2019-20, a slowdown into 2023 and a major recession around 2027. The former two played out.

Chart 1

The housing cycle is already in a downswing, the stockbuilding cycle is at or close to a peak, while the business investment cycle is well-advanced. The Gulf War III energy price shock could be the trigger for synchronised weakness.

There have been six oil price “shocks” since the 1960s, defined here as episodes in which the spot price rose 50% or more above its two-year moving average for at least three months. All were followed by a significant contraction in G7 industrial output and five were associated with a US recession, as determined by the NBER – chart 2.

Chart 2

Spot Brent of $100 per barrel represents a 37% premium to the two-year moving average. Oil would have to be sustained at about $115 for three months for the current spike to qualify as a “shock”.

The oil intensity of GDP has fallen dramatically since the 1970s, suggesting less vulnerability to shocks. This could explain why the most recent shock – in 2022 – did not involve a US recession.

An alternative view is that a recession was avoided because the cyclical backdrop was less unfavourable and there was pent-up demand due to pandemic disruption, reflected in a large monetary overhang. The stockbuilding cycle turned down in 2022 but the housing and business investment cycles were in late upswing and recovery phases respectively.

The prior shocks caused short-term inflation spikes and were associated with upward pressure on interest rates, contributing to a fall in nominal narrow money momentum. G7 real money contracted ahead of maximum economic weakness. Real money data will be key for assessing the extent of current economic damage.

“A good laugh and long sleep are the best cures in a doctor’s book.” – Old Irish proverb

It’s been more than a decade since the CDC declared sleep disorders “a public health epidemic.” Since then, the world has woken up and taken note. The long-term impact of sleep loss on mental health and physical performance has been widely documented in scientific studies. From cardiovascular disease to compromised immunity and burnout, poor sleeping habits quietly add up over time while increasing our mortality risk. Sleep is also important for cognitive health because it gives the brain time to remove toxins that accumulate while we are awake.

The three foundational pillars of human health are sleep, diet and exercise. Diet and exercise have always dominated conversations around health with very little attention paid to sleep and sleeping habits. Now sleep (or the lack of it) has finally caught the attention of society at large and with it we have seen the rise of the sleep economy.

The broader sleep economy encompasses everything from sleeping aids to sleep medication and supplements, bedding and furnishing to sleep tourism. Just the sleeping-aid market is estimated to reach $188 billion according to Statista. The emergence of the sleep economy is best represented by the popularity of products like the Oura ring that tracks heart rates, sleep cycles and recovery metrics. Oura ring has sold over 5.5 million rings and the company behind it, Oura Health, was valued at $11 billion last year.

Beyond just physical products, we are also seeing the rise of sleep tourism, with travelers showing an increased preference for sleep-focused holidays. Hotels understand that their customers now value good quality sleep and offer everything from smart beds and pillow menus to sleep-specific spa treatments and dedicated sleep programs to help reset the circadian rhythm and allow customers to rest.

One of the holdings in our portfolio is Atour Lifestyle Holdings Ltd. (ATAT US), the largest hotel operator in China’s upper-midscale segment. There are several attributes of the business that make it attractive purely as a hotel operator – from its brand strength to its ability to expand in an asset-light manner while maintaining its attractiveness to prospective franchisees.

However, Atour also has a fast-growing retail business that caters directly to emerging sleep economy trends. From deep sleep pillows to mattresses and comforters, Atour is the first hotel chain in China to develop a retail business around the sleep economy. Sleep economy aside, Atour also taps into so called new consumption trends in China where consumers prioritize maintaining a balanced lifestyle and personal fulfillment over conspicuous consumption that was prioritized by their parent’s generation. From that perspective, Atour for us checks two boxes: the rise of the sleep economy and shift in spending toward services like travel and tourism, concerts etc.

Atour is able to create synergies with its hotel business by cross selling its products to its hotel guests. Hotel guests get what is in effect a free trial when they stay at an Atour property and their real-time feedback is used to enhance product R&D. It helps that Atour’s premium positioning has a positive spillover effect on the brand positioning of its sleep products. Being alert to changing societal norms and evolving spending priorities is a key element in identifying themes within our investment process. We sleep well at night knowing that these thematic tailwinds provide a nice boost to Atour’s revenues and profitability on top of good execution with its core hotel business.

A rise in the ISM manufacturing new orders index was expected to be short-lived even before the outbreak of Gulf War III.

The index jumped from 47.4 in December to 57.1 in January, with a small retreat to 55.8 in February. The January reading was the strongest since 2022.

The ISM rise, along with a parallel increase in global manufacturing PMI new orders, boosted hopes of a sustained industrial upswing with an associated earnings-driven broadening of equity market gains.

The interpretation here, by contrast, has been that the ISM / PMI rises reflect the global stockbuilding cycle moving into a peak. The cycle was expected to begin a downswing by mid-2026 into a H1 2027 low.

The ISM customer inventories index supports this interpretation. The jump in new orders has been accompanied by a sharp fall in customer inventories to below 40. Previous declines to sub-40 occurred around peaks in new orders – see chart 1.

Chart 1

This seems, on first consideration, perverse. The customer inventories index is a gauge of whether stock levels are too high or low. Falling / low readings might be expected to signal future restocking, resulting in a rise in new orders.

The explanation for the opposite relationship is that, by the time they report lower inventories, customers are already placing restocking orders, i.e. the additional demand is reflected in current not future new orders. The next phase of the cycle involves customers reducing demand as inventories return to a comfortable level. This phase marks the new orders peak.

An imminent ISM new orders reversal is also implied by a recent decline in six-month growth of real currency in circulation, which has led the orders index by an average eight months historically and peaked most recently in August – chart 2.

Chart 2

The suggested explanation for this relationship is that currency demand is influenced by retail spending plans, with such spending driving orders placed by retailers / wholesalers. The currency slowdown may indicate that spending prospects were deteriorating before the energy price shock.

Lindsay Holtz et Moira Turnbull-Fox ont été mises en vedette dans un récent article de Benefits and Pensions Monitor intitulé « Why micro-communities matter for women’s careers ». Elles ont parlé de notre collectif de femmes et de l’importance de créer des espaces pour les femmes dans l’ensemble du Groupe financier CC&L et de ses sociétés affiliées afin qu’elles puissent établir des liens et s’entraider.

« Il existe de nombreux événements de réseautage à l’externe auxquels les gens peuvent participer, mais nous avons constaté qu’il y avait un manque ici même, à l’interne. Il nous a donc été facile de saisir cette occasion et de l’orienter dans la direction que nous souhaitions lui donner », explique Lindsay.

L’article coïncidait avec la Journée internationale de la femme, un rappel mondial des progrès réalisés, du travail qui reste à faire et de l’importance de créer des environnements où les femmes peuvent diriger, s’épanouir et se faire entendre. C’est le moment de célébrer les réalisations, de promouvoir l’équité et de réaffirmer notre engagement à soutenir les femmes dans nos milieux de travail et nos collectivités.

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