CC&L Financial Group Ltd.

A further rise in China’s trade surplus over the past year has been accompanied by bumper growth of US dollar deposits in Hong Kong, suggesting that Chinese entities have been building a hedge against RMB depreciation – see chart 1.

Chart 1

US dollar deposits grew by $139 bn or 15.6% in the year to April to stand at $975 bn, equivalent to 4.5% of US M2. They have risen much more strongly than Hong Kong dollar deposits, now representing 92% of the value of the latter, up from 79% at end-2022.

Low inflation has allowed China to gain competitiveness without nominal depreciation, with the BIS real effective rate at a 13-year low – chart 2.

Chart 2

Is demand for US dollar balances starting to wane? The recent fall in Hong Kong rates is consistent with a switch into local dollars. The one-year Hong Kong / US rate differential is the most negative since 2005, before a sustained appreciation of the RMB – chart 3.

Chart 3

Chinese f/x settlement numbers, meanwhile, indicate that the authorities intervened to hold down the RMB for a second month in May. Upward pressure had been signalled by a forward premium on the offshore RMB, which has persisted in June – chart 4.

Chart 4

The onshore spot rate has moved from the weak end to the middle of the PBoC’s trading band, with the central parity rate edging higher – chart 5.

Chart 5

Any signal from the Chinese authorities of acquiescence to an appreciating trend could quickly become self-fulfilling by encouraging a further unwind of hedges, including via a reduced US dollar share of Hong Kong deposits.

Nous avons le plaisir d’annoncer que Bryce Walker a été nommé président et chef de la direction des Fonds Connor, Clark & Lunn Inc. (« Fonds CC&L ») et personne désignée responsable.

Tim Elliott se joint à Gestion de placements Connor, Clark & Lunn Ltée (« Gestion de placements CC&L ») au sein de l’équipe des Solutions clients institutionnels. Il entrera en fonction le 1er juillet 2025.

Bryce Walker est entré au service des Fonds CC&L en 2012 à titre de vice-président, Expansion des affaires. À ce titre, il a encadré les efforts de vente et de service dans l’Ouest canadien. Accédant au poste de vice-président principal, Expansion des affaires, en 2018, il a pris la direction des équipes de vente et de service à l’échelle du Canada.

Tim Elliott est entré au service du Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn Ltée. (Groupe financier CC&L) en 2007 et a fondé les Fonds CC&L en 2012 dans le but de proposer des stratégies de placements institutionnels uniques et éprouvées sur le marché canadien de la gestion de patrimoine par l’intermédiaire de courtiers en placement à services complets et d’un réseau de bureaux multifamiliaux. Depuis, la société a connu une croissance rapide de ses actifs, de ses stratégies et de ses effectifs, au point d’être reconnue comme une référence sur le marché pour ce qui a trait aux comptes en gestion distincte (« CGD »), aux stratégies de placements alternatifs liquides et aux stratégies de fonds de placement spécialisés.

« Je suis très fier de l’équipe et des activités que nous avons développées au sein des Fonds CC&L en offrant des solutions de placement uniques de calibre institutionnel et en créant de solides partenariats avec certains des meilleurs conseillers et organismes dans le domaine de la gestion de patrimoine au Canada », a déclaré Tim Elliott. « Je suis très enthousiaste à l’idée de me joindre à Gestion de placements CC&L à un moment où la société connaît une croissance institutionnelle rapide, et j’ai hâte de voir jusqu’où Bryce Walker et notre formidable équipe pourront mener les activités des Fonds CC&L. »

« Au cours des 12 dernières années, Tim Elliott et moi avons travaillé en étroite collaboration pour bâtir une entreprise relativement unique au Canada, compte tenu de notre approche spécialisée sur le marché de la gestion de patrimoine, soutenue par l’un des plus importants gestionnaires d’actifs privés au Canada. Je me réjouis de diriger l’entreprise dans cette nouvelle phase de croissance et d’expansion », a déclaré Bryce Walker.

Cette transition favorisera la forte croissance de Gestion de placements CC&L, en particulier sur le marché institutionnel, et des Fonds CC&L dans le segment de la gestion de patrimoine au Canada. Elle s’inscrit également dans la stratégie à long terme du Groupe financier CC&L en matière de planification de la relève.

À propos de Fonds Connor, Clark & Lunn Inc.

Fonds Connor, Clark & Lunn Inc. noue des partenariats avec des institutions financières canadiennes de premier plan et leurs conseillers en placement afin d’offrir des stratégies de placements institutionnelles uniques à des investisseurs particuliers, grâce à une gamme de fonds, de placements alternatifs liquides et de comptes en gestion distincte choisis avec soin.

En limitant leur gamme à un groupe de solutions de placement précises, les Fonds CC&L sont en mesure d’offrir des stratégies uniques conçues pour améliorer les portefeuilles traditionnels des investisseurs. Pour de plus amples renseignements, consultez le site https://www.cclgroup.com/cclfunds/fr/home.

À propos de Gestion de placements Connor, Clark & Lunn Ltée

Gestion de placements Connor, Clark & Lunn Ltée est l’une des plus importantes sociétés de gestion de placements indépendantes au Canada (elle appartient à ses associés) et gère un actif de 78 milliards de dollars. Fondée en 1982, elle propose une gamme diversifiée de solutions de placements traditionnels (actions, titres à revenu fixe et placements équilibrés) et non traditionnels (stratégies neutres au marché, à alpha portable et à rendement absolu). Pour de plus amples renseignements, consultez le site https://cclinvest.cclgroup.com/fr/.

À propos de Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn Ltée

Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn Ltée est une société de gestion d’actifs indépendante à multiples sociétés affiliées qui offre une vaste gamme de solutions de gestion de placements traditionnelles et non traditionnelles aux investisseurs institutionnels et individuels. Cette structure procure au Groupe financier CC&L une envergure et une expertise considérables qui lui permettent d’assumer des fonctions administratives qui ne sont pas liées aux placements tout en laissant ses gestionnaires de placement se concentrer sur ce qu’ils font le mieux grâce à la centralisation des activités liées aux opérations et à la distribution. Les sociétés affiliées du Groupe financier CC&L gèrent un actif de plus de 142 milliards de dollars. Pour obtenir de plus amples renseignements, consultez le site https://cclfg.cclgroup.com/fr/.

Personne-ressource

Lisa Wilson
Directrice, Produits et service à la clientèle
Fonds Connor, Clark & Lunn Inc.
416-864-3120
[email protected]

Chinese monetary trends suggest a continuation of lacklustre economic growth with negligible inflation.

Six-month momentum of narrow and broad money picked up strongly during H2 2024, raising hopes of a reflationary scenario. Growth rates, however, have fallen back since Q1, to around the middle of ranges in recent years – see chart 1.

Chart 1

May activity numbers confirm an economic slowdown, with six-month growth of industrial output and fixed asset investment falling again, and home sales contracting at a faster pace. Retail sales were boosted by subsidy programmes and promotions, with payback likely – chart 2.

Chart 2

House prices haven’t stabilised. The three-month change in new house prices has stalled below zero, with that for existing homes becoming more negative – chart 3.

Chart 3

Monetary developments don’t yet warrant pessimism. Six-month broad money momentum remains respectable, at 4.0% – 8.2% annualised – in May. This could be consistent with nominal GDP growth of c.6.5% pa, based on a long-run trend rise of 1.75% pa in the money to GDP ratio.

Narrow money momentum has weakened more sharply but the sectoral breakdown is reassuring, showing stable growth of household and enterprise money, with the aggregate slowdown due to a fall in demand deposits of government-related bodies – chart 4.

Chart 4

This fall is unlikely to be a leading indicator of reduced spending by these bodies, particularly as their overall deposit growth – i.e. including time as well demand deposits – has remained stable.

The money numbers, moreover, exclude fiscal (i.e. central government) deposits, six-month growth of which has picked up since Q1. Demand deposits of government-related bodies could recover as funds are transferred to finance spending projects.

We have written extensively in recent months on how monetary and currency signals may be hinting that we are on the cusp of a “virtuous circle” for performance in EM equities. For any who missed it, a few recent pieces below:

Implications of Asian currency tremors

‘Beautiful’ tariffs and the end of exceptionalism

Are emerging markets on the cusp of a ‘virtuous circle’?

This is the most bullish we have been on the outlook for emerging market equities in over a decade.

Recent momentum has been positive, with MSCI EM up 9% to the end of May, part of a broader upswing in markets outside of the United States.

MSCI Price Indices
USD Terms, 31 December 2024 = 100

Source: LSEG Datastream

Macquarie Capital investment strategist Viktor Shvets wrote earlier this month that, in May, EM excluding China recorded the largest net inflow since December 2023. India ($2.3 billion), Taiwan ($7.6 billion) and Brazil ($2 billion) received the largest flows, helping to buck a trend of selling through 2024 and early 2025.

EM ex-China Net Foreign Flows (US$ bn) – strong flow reversal

Source: Bloomberg; Macquarie Global Strategy (May 2025)

Persistent negative outflows over the past decade from EM into the United States have driven what by many measures is an unprecedented valuation gap.

US relative to the rest of the world forward PE and dividend yield

Source: CLSA (April 2025)

Some premium is no doubt deserved given stronger US growth versus the rest of the world post-GFC, along with a better environment for capital and innovation. However, such extreme valuations imply lofty relative future growth expectations and leave US equities vulnerable to negative catalysts.

As John Authers wrote in his Points of Return column for Bloomberg:

Ultimately, EMs benefit most from the decline of US exceptionalism, giving central banks room to cut rates, as noted by Points of Return, and letting fiscal authorities spend without worrying about tanking the currency.

In a world where no one is exceptional, as Macquarie’s Shvets puts it, EMs are no longer penalized. At best, he calls the fall of American exceptionalism a process, not a collapse — creating conditions for a gradual rise in US risk premia while avoiding disorderly asset repricing. Investors will continue narrowing spreads between US and non-US assets, supporting EMU and Japan. Ditto for EMs, especially those with stronger secular drivers, with India, Korea, and Taiwan standouts.

Currency tailwind for EM

Source: NS Partners & LSEG

Winners and losers

Despite being caught up in Liberation Day tariff chaos, MSCI China has returned 13.1% over the same period. Since 2023, China has been one of the strongest equity markets in the world. Despite the rally, valuations in many of the high-quality businesses that we like remain modest.

Source: Jefferies (March 2025)

Having led the way for EM over the last few years, Indian stocks returned just 3% as sentiment moderates.

South Korea bounced 18.7% as domestic political risks eased following the impeachment of former president Yoon Suk Yeol following his failed attempt to impose martial law in December 2024. Former opposition leader Lee Jae-myung was elected to the presidency in early June and will immediately grapple with a contracting economy which has been hit further by US tariffs.

Taiwan has been a laggard, its market flat over the period which includes the DeepSeek shock that hit AI supply chain stocks on fears of lower demand for the hardware used to power the technology.

Stocks in Southeast Asia are yet to fire this year despite being beneficiaries of a falling USD and improving global liquidity. Perhaps investors remain fearful that these smaller, open trading economies risk getting trampled at the feet of the two fighting elephants in the United States and China. In a meeting with our CIO Ian Beattie earlier this year in London, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar explained what a difficult position his country is in. China is Malaysia’s biggest trading partner and second largest investor, while the United States is its largest investor and second largest trading partner! If trade tensions between China and the United States cool, then these markets should soar.

Elsewhere, South African stocks have boomed, rising 24.4% powered in part by the country’s gold miners, along with a tentative improvement in politics under the ruling national ANC/DA coalition.

Brazil and Mexico have largely avoided president Trump’s ire and have rallied despite challenging political and economic backdrops, up 20.0% and 28.3% respectively.

Huge rallies in Greece (47.5%) and Poland (43.3%) have been driven by a powerful cocktail of geopolitical realignment between Europe and the United States and fiscal stimulus combined with cheap valuations. The most notable catalyst has been Germany’s dramatic policy shift under Chancellor Friedrich Merz. His government has proposed a sweeping €500 billion infrastructure investment plan and a major increase in defence spending. Crucially, the proposal includes exempting defence expenditures exceeding 1% of GDP from the constitutional “debt brake,” a move that would allow for significantly more fiscal flexibility.

Turkey bucked the trend (-15%), the market tanking on news President Erdogan jailed a political rival on trumped up corruption charges. The portfolio is zero-weight Turkey, and we are not tempted by ever cheaper valuations while Erdogan threatens the rule of law.

Finally, the GCC was a mixed bag with Saudi Arabia (-5.2%) hit by a weaker oil price, while the UAE (14.9%) was much stronger.

Caveat

Monetary data in the United States had been signalling a slowdown this summer, and this is now likely to be exacerbated by tariffs with a muted recovery in the latter half of 2025. The best-case scenario for EM at present would be contained US economic weakness, a slowdown in underlying inflation and a sustained pace of rate cuts. The story would be one of a late-cycle catch-up in EM performance, as illustrated by the table below.

Stockbuilding cycle & markets: EM, small caps, industrial commodities lagging – catch-up potential?

Source: LSEG Datastream, own calculations / dating, as at 2 June 2025

We would expect EM to underperform in a hard-landing scenario, although this might be temporary given the lack of prior outperformance, followed by a strong early cycle phase. The chart from CLSA below shows prior phases of early cycle outperformance.

Emerging equities are an early cycle play: EM equity outperformance phases post US recessions

Source: CLAS, MSCI, NBER

Mexico’s scorching rally belies deteriorating institutional quality

Ducking US tariffs and in prime position to benefit from US friendshoring, Mexico has been one of the top performing emerging markets this year. Strong stock picking in our portfolio allowed us to keep up despite an underweight to the country. However, we have used the rally as an opportunity to take profits and increase our underweight on a view that investors underestimate the impact of recent judicial elections.

In June last year we flagged the potential for Morena’s dominance in congressional and presidential elections to expose investors to rising institutional risks – Political risks in EM spike as Indian, South African and Mexican elections surprise:

Crucially for investors, AMLO and Morena are pursuing policies that could threaten Mexico’s institutions. Institutional quality is a key factor in determining whether a country moves up the economic development ladder. …

Investors fear that a strengthened mandate will allow Sheinbaum (or even an outgoing AMLO) to undermine judicial independence,and pursue plans to eliminate autonomous government agencies overseeing telecoms, energy and access to information, as well as weaken electoral supervisory bodies.

Morena under president Sheinbaum pushed ahead with an unprecedented judicial overhaul, with Mexican citizens voting in early June to elect judges including for the Supreme Court. As reported by Bloomberg on the 2nd of June – Mexico Judicial Election Sees 13% Turnout in Historic Vote:

The controversial election asked voters to pick judges among several thousand hopefuls which marked a first of its kind experiment for a large democracy. The judicial overhaul could give Sheinbaum broad influence over a revamped judiciary, the only branch of government the leftist Morena party does not control.

Critics of the process argue that this will undermine the rule of law by injecting more politics into legal and constitutional disputes.

Only 13% of registered voters turned out to participate, tasked with choosing between thousands of candidates, while accounting for specialties while selecting an equal number of men and women.

Politicising the selection of the judicial officers compromises Mexico’s separation of powers between the executive, congress and judiciary. This is a step backward as it undermines the institutional pluralism within the country’s system of government, where different power centres provide checks and balances and ways for the system to self-correct.

Regressive judicial reform coupled with a fragile economy hit by tariff uncertainty, falling remittances from a deteriorating US labour market and deportation fears is the basis for added caution.

Risks are to the downside for Mexico’s industrial production in 2025

Source: GBM (June 2025)

Exposure to Mexico in our portfolio is now c. 1% versus c. 2% for the benchmark.

Given the direction of travel in macro risk, we will debate whether to downgrade our country rating for Mexico further in the coming weeks. We are always seeking competition for capital in the portfolio, and in LatAm we are seeing interesting opportunities emerge in places like Argentina, Peru and Brazil, all competing for risk budget.

Last week, we visited Federal Signal’s flagship manufacturing facility alongside a select group of investors. Touring the plant floor, seeing the latest innovations in action and engaging directly with the teams driving Federal Signal’s record-setting growth gave us invaluable insights that numbers alone can’t provide. This on-the-ground approach reflects our commitment to deep diligence and transparency – values that set us apart in the investment community.

Our group witnessed not only the impressive scale of production, but also the operational excellence and culture of continuous improvement that permeate every corner of the company. From the hum of new automated machinery to the pride in the eyes of long-tenured employees, the visit reaffirmed why Federal Signal remains a leader in its field and a valuable investment.

Vactor Manufacturing production plant in Streator, IL. Source: Global Alpha.

A truck outside the Vactor Manufacturing production plant. Source: Global Alpha.

Another section of the production plant, highlighting other brands produced by Federal Signal. Source: Global Alpha.

A specialized truck produced by Federal Signal. Source: Global Alpha.

Who is Federal Signal?

Federal Signal Corp. (FSS NY) makes specialized vehicles and equipment that help keep communities safe, clean and running smoothly. In simple terms, the company builds things like street sweepers, sewer-cleaning trucks, fire rescue vehicles and emergency warning systems. Their products are used by cities, governments and businesses to clean streets, manage waste, respond to emergencies and alert people to danger.

Federal Signal: A platform built for power and agility

Federal Signal’s story is one of transformation and resilience. Over the past decade, the company has built a powerful platform that combines organic growth, strategic acquisitions and a robust aftermarket business. Since 2016, net sales have grown at a compound annual rate of 13%, reaching a record $1.86 billion in 2024. The company’s ability to scale quickly has been critical in overcoming challenges and seizing new opportunities.

Inside the plant: Innovation, efficiency and teamwork

During our visit, we saw firsthand how Federal Signal’s operational strategies translate into real world results:

Production efficiency: The Streator, Illinois facility set a new record for unit production in 2024, thanks to improved supply chains and process enhancements.

Lean initiatives: The Federal Signal Operating System, including 80/20 programs and lean manufacturing, is driving efficiency, cost savings and reduced lead times across the organization.

Electrification and new product development: The company continues to invest in electrification, with new offerings like the fully electric Broom Bear street sweeper and Rugby Vari-Class dump platform.

Safety and security: The Safety and Security Systems Group (SSG) posted a 7% sales increase, with EBITDA margins rising by 170 basis points, reflecting strong demand for public safety equipment and operational discipline.

These achievements are not abstract – they are visible on the plant floor, in the streamlined workflows and in the pride of the workforce.

Strategic growth: M&A and aftermarket expansion

Federal Signal’s disciplined approach to mergers and acquisitions (M&A) has been a key driver of its growth. Since 2016, about half of top-line growth has come from M&A, with a focus on integrating and strengthening acquired businesses. The recent acquisition of Hog Technologies, a leader in road marking and water blasting equipment, expands Federal Signal’s reach into new geographies and end-markets, such as airports.

The company’s aftermarket business – parts, service, rentals and training – continues to expand, providing stable, recurring revenue and deeper customer relationships. This diversification of revenue streams helps buffer the company against economic cycles and positions it for long-term sustainability.

Positioned for the future: Resilience and opportunity

Federal Signal’s future is bright, supported by a robust backlog, a healthy M&A pipeline and a diversified customer base. The company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing infrastructure investment, including federal stimulus funds and the bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, which are driving demand for essential equipment like sewer cleaners, street sweepers and safe digging trucks.

A key differentiator is Federal Signal’s ability to adapt – whether by bringing more production in-house, optimizing distribution or leveraging cross-selling opportunities among its brands. The company’s platform approach ensures that every new acquisition and product line strengthens the whole.

What sets Global Alpha apart: The value of being there

Our recent plant visit is more than a symbolic gesture – it’s a core part of our investment philosophy. By engaging directly with Federal Signal’s people and processes, we gain a nuanced understanding of the company’s strengths and opportunities that goes beyond financial statements. This hands-on diligence gives us – and our investors – confidence in the company’s trajectory and our decision-making.

In a world where many rely solely on remote analysis, our willingness to “walk the floor” sets us apart. It’s how we build conviction, spot emerging trends early and ensure we’re investing alongside the best teams in the business.

Conclusion: Moving forward together

Federal Signal’s journey is one of continuous growth, innovation and resilience. As we saw firsthand this week, the company’s success is driven by a powerful platform, a culture of excellence and a commitment to serving customers and communities.

We are excited to continue this journey with you – on the ground, in the field, and at the forefront of industry leadership. Thank you for your trust and partnership.

L’intelligence artificielle (IA) représente les progrès technologiques qui permettent aux machines d’imiter le fonctionnement de notre cerveau, en s’inspirant de notre façon de recevoir les données, de résoudre des problèmes et de prendre des décisions. L’IA est reçue comme la plus récente technologie d’usage général (en anglais, general purpose technology ou GPT*), suivant la lignée d’innovations antérieures comme la machine à vapeur, l’électricité et la révolution des technologies de l’information et des communications (TIC). Cet article examine la façon dont l’IA devrait contribuer à la productivité économique et ses répercussions dans le monde de la gestion d’actifs.

Les technologies d’usage général et l’économie

Les avantages d’une technologie d’usage général sur le plan de la productivité économique se manifestent en trois phases :

La phase initiale : Au cours de cette phase, la technologie est nouvelle et son adoption est limitée, ce qui se traduit par des avantages minimes.
La phase de croissance : À mesure que la technologie s’améliore, les coûts de mise en œuvre diminuent et son usage se généralise, ce qui se traduit par d’importants gains de productivité.
La phase de maturité : Le rythme des améliorations et des déploiements ralentit, ce qui entraîne une diminution graduelle des gains de productivité.

Dans le passé, il a fallu plusieurs décennies pour que les gains de productivité découlant d’une technologie d’usage général se matérialisent. Toutefois, l’IA devrait faire une différence plus rapidement en raison de sa nature logicielle, qui permet un déploiement rapide et efficace des progrès.

L’IA devrait avoir une incidence sur l’économie à plusieurs niveaux :

Économies d’efficacité : L’IA augmentera la productivité grâce à des économies d’efficacité ponctuelles, soit en maximisant les ressources existantes, soit en effectuant des tâches avec moins de ressources.
Collaboration entre l’humain et l’IA : Dans certains cas, l’IA remplacera les humains, tandis que dans d’autres, elle les aidera à être plus efficaces dans leur travail. Malgré les préoccupations liées à l’IA, 95 % des travailleurs reconnaissent sa valeur pour leur travail (en anglais).
Innovations complémentaires : Il est peu probable que les avantages de l’IA se concrétisent entièrement tant qu’il n’y aura pas d’innovations complémentaires, de manière analogue au rôle joué par le développement de navigateurs Web et de moteurs de recherche dans l’atteinte du plein potentiel de l’Internet.

PwC prévoit que le PIB mondial augmentera de 14 % en 2030 en raison de l’adoption de l’IA, soit l’équivalent d’un ajout de 15 700 milliards de dollars américains. Selon les prévisions, plus de la moitié des gains proviendront de l’amélioration de la productivité de la main-d’œuvre. Toutefois, les avantages économiques de l’IA ne seront pas répartis partout équitablement. Les États-Unis devraient en tirer des gains plus rapides et possiblement plus prononcés en raison de leurs investissements privés et publics substantiels dans la recherche et le développement en IA ainsi que de leur grand nombre d’entreprises en démarrage dans ce domaine.

L’IA et les actions

Les gestionnaires d’actions peuvent être classés dans deux grands styles : fondamentaux et systématiques (quantitatifs). Les gestionnaires adoptant des stratégies fondamentales effectuent des recherches approfondies sur des sociétés individuelles, parfois au moyen d’outils d’IA pour agrémenter leur analyse. En revanche, les gestionnaires systématiques préconisent depuis longtemps l’utilisation de la technologie, se servant de modèles informatisés dont l’analyse englobe un vaste univers d’actions.

Par exemple, les progrès technologiques ont permis à l’équipe de stratégies quantitatives d’actions de Gestion de placements Connor, Clark & Lunn d’améliorer son processus de placement grâce à une puissance informatique accrue et à une plus grande disponibilité des données. Ceci a poussé l’équipe à valoriser autant sa philosophie de placement que sa philosophie technologique, une approche qui se traduit par une étroite collaboration entre les gestionnaires de portefeuille, les professionnels de l’apprentissage automatique et d’autres professionnels de l’informatique dans un environnement entièrement symbiotique.

À mesure que les ordinateurs sont devenus plus intelligents et plus rapides, la portée de l’analyse s’est élargie. L’équipe est passée de l’utilisation de plusieurs machines rapides distinctes à un grand réseau interne pour l’informatique parallèle, situé à la fois dans ses bureaux et dans le nuage, ce qui lui permet d’accéder à des milliers d’unités centrales de traitement sur demande de manière rentable.

Les données ont toujours été au cœur de la gestion des placements en actions. Aujourd’hui, l’équipe peut utiliser beaucoup plus de données en raison de la complexité accrue des algorithmes. Le défi pour tous les gestionnaires d’actifs est de réduire les milliers de jeux de données possibles à ceux qui sont les plus susceptibles de fournir les renseignements spécifiques, puis de vérifier les données sélectionnées. Les outils d’apprentissage automatique se prêtent particulièrement bien à cette tâche. Ils transforment des ensembles de données vastes et complexes et en font ressortir des relations non linéaires pour révéler des informations précieuses ou organisent des données désordonnées afin de mieux évaluer les conclusions tirées. Les sources de données sont validées à plusieurs niveaux, y compris un dialogue direct avec les fournisseurs de données, soulignant l’importance de la participation des humains et des machines au processus.

Bien qu’une plus grande disponibilité des données et une puissance accrue des ressources informatiques aient amélioré le processus systématique de placement en actions, ce dernier dépend toujours de la collaboration entre les humains et la technologie à cette étape de l’évolution de l’IA.

L’IA et les infrastructures

L’IA améliore considérablement l’efficacité de divers actifs d’infrastructures. Des investissements importants sont également nécessaires dans le réseau d’infrastructures pour soutenir l’IA, notamment dans les centres de données, l’électricité nécessaire pour les alimenter et les réseaux par fibre optique pour les connecter aux utilisateurs.

La demande en stockage et en puissance informatique dans les centres de données a bondi. McKinsey estime que la demande mondiale pourrait quadrupler d’ici 2030. Le grand appétit en énergie des centres de données pose des défis d’alimentation. Par exemple, Microsoft a conclu un contrat avec Constellation Energy pour fournir de l’électricité à son nouveau centre de données en Virginie, et Amazon a mis en place des ententes similaires avec Talen Energy Corporation.

L’IA contribue de bien des façons à améliorer l’efficacité des infrastructures. Par exemple, bien qu’un ascenseur fonctionnel soit important dans un immeuble de bureaux, cet ascenseur est essentiel dans un hôpital où il transporte les patients vers des chirurgies vitales. Ce type d’infrastructures est exploité en fonction de la disponibilité, ce qui signifie que si elles ne fonctionnent pas, des déductions sont imposées aux revenus. L’IA est utilisée pour prédire à quel moment un ascenseur pourrait profiter d’un entretien anticipé, réduisant ainsi les déductions de revenu potentielles en raison d’ascenseurs hors service et améliorant le rendement généré par l’actif d’infrastructures.

Dans les aéroports, des modèles d’IA sont utilisés pour optimiser la dotation de personnel aux points de contrôle de sécurité afin de l’apparier au nombre de passagers à différents moments de la journée, ce qui réduit considérablement les temps d’attente. Le temps nécessaire pour passer par la sûreté aéroportuaire sera réduit davantage lorsque la technologie de l’IA biométrique pour saisir les empreintes faciales sera introduite à plus grande échelle.

Risques liés à l’IA

Même si l’IA apporte des contributions importantes dans de nombreux domaines, elle n’est pas sans risque. Un sondage de McKinsey a révélé que le plus important souci de près d’un quart des répondants était l’inexactitude des données, tandis que la cybersécurité occupait le deuxième rang du palmarès des risques.

Le problème de l’inexactitude des données découle du fait que l’ajout de piètres données se traduise en une production de données tout aussi mauvaises. Par conséquent, nous devons nous méfier de la mésinformation qui a lieu lorsque l’IA produit involontairement de faux renseignements. La désinformation, soit les faux renseignements produits intentionnellement par des personnes sans scrupules grâce à l’IA, est encore plus préoccupante. Pour les gestionnaires d’actifs, cela fait ressortir l’importance de vérifier toute source de données utilisée.

Les occasions et défis de l’IA

L’incidence économique de l’IA devrait se matérialiser plus rapidement que celle des technologies d’usage général antérieures, principalement parce que l’IA est une technologie logicielle qui peut être déployée rapidement et efficacement. À mesure que le volume de données continuera de se multiplier, des occasions et des défis se présenteront. L’IA contribue à l’efficacité dans le monde de la gestion d’actifs, en particulier dans certains segments des actions et des infrastructures. Toutefois, son influence devrait s’étendre à de nombreuses autres catégories d’actif au fil du temps. Il est essentiel de rester au fait des progrès technologiques pour éviter d’être laissé pour compte ou, pire, d’être remplacé par l’IA.

* À ne pas confondre avec le GPT à la fin de ChatGPT qui, dans ce cas, signifie transformateur génératif préentrainé.

The directional signal from UK money growth is that annual core inflation – excluding policy distortions – will fall through end-2025. The level suggestion is that core will undershoot 2%. This suggestion is supported by recent exchange rate appreciation.

Turning points in annual broad money growth – as measured by non-financial M4 – have led turning points in core CPI or RPI inflation by a mean 26 months over the last c.70 years. Chart 1 highlights related troughs (gold dashed lines). (See a previous post for an equivalent chart highlighting peaks.)

Chart 1

The May 2023 core inflation peak occurred 27 months after a money growth peak.

Annual broad money momentum troughed at a 67-year low in October 2023. The mean 26-month lead suggests a core inflation low in December 2025. The median lag at troughs, however, was 29 months, so an inflation low may well occur later.

Core inflation fell sharply in H2 2023 and H1 2024 but has stalled since September. The expectation here is that May numbers released next week will show a decline, possibly to below 3%. (The core measure adjusts for the imposition of VAT on school fees and above-normal increases in water / sewerage charges and vehicle excise duty.)

Annual broad money growth averaged 4.2% in the 10 years to end-2019. Core inflation averaged 1.8% in the 10 years to February 2022 (i.e. allowing for a 26-month lag in the relationship).

Annual money growth moved slightly above 4.2% in late 2024 / early 2025 but dropped back to 3.9% in April. So the levels relationship of the 2010s suggests that core inflation will fall below 2%, with no significant rebound before 2027.

Historical variations in the lag between money growth and inflation – and in the levels relationship – often reflected the influence of the exchange rate.

For example, an inflation decline into 2000 occurred earlier than suggested by monetary trends because of a strong disinflationary impact from a prior surge in the exchange rate: the effective rate rose by 26% in the two years to April 1998 – chart 2. This impact was fading by early 2000, contributing to an unusually short interval between lows in money growth and inflation (six months).

Chart 2

Exchange rate considerations are aligned with the monetary message currently, with a 7% rise in the effective rate in the two years to May suggesting that import prices will remain under downward pressure into 2026.

Eurozone / UK money growth has weakened despite rate cuts, suggesting that central banks – particularly the MPC – have more work to do to sustain economic expansion and prevent inflation undershoots.

Preferred broad money aggregates – Eurozone non-financial M3 and UK non-financial M4 – grew by 2.3% and 2.1% annualised respectively in the three months to April, down from 4.6% and 4.4% in the prior three months – see chart 1.

Chart 1

Concern about the Eurozone slowdown is tempered by still-respectable narrow money growth – non-financial M1 rose by 5.2% annualised between January and April versus 6.2% in the prior three months.

UK non-financial M1, by contrast, contracted by 1.7% annualised in the latest three months, following 6.5% growth in the three months to January.

The slump in UK momentum was driven by a month-on-month fall of 1.0% (not annualised) in April, mostly due to the household component. This may have been related to the end of the stamp duty holiday on 31 March – a bunching of transactions and mortgage borrowing ahead of the deadline may have been associated with a temporary rise in demand for sight deposits, which reversed in April as activity normalised.

An additional possibility is that individuals who sold assets in anticipation of tax rises in the October Budget delayed reinvesting the proceeds until the start of the 2025-26 tax year.

Household broad money rose by 0.2% in April despite the big fall in sight deposits, reflecting a record £14.0 billion inflow to cash ISAs.

Still, the movement of money out of current accounts is a negative signal for the economy, suggesting low spending intentions and a preference for saving.

UK corporate broad money, meanwhile, resumed a decline in the latest three months, suggesting that firms remain under financial pressure to cut jobs and investment.

One of the greatest disruptions in recent years to the global grocery market has been the rising popularity of discount retailers like Lidl and Aldi. The two German-based supermarket chains have expanded rapidly, challenging the incumbent grocery players to rethink their strategies.

Lidl and Aldi have consistently taken market share in key markets. In the United States, Lidl and Aldi had a combined market share of 10% in 2024. It is a similar story in the UK where the two now account for around 18% of the grocery market, up from just 4% in 2008.

Source: Grocery Market Share – Kantar

The recipe for their massive success is well known: a low-cost business model that aims to offer customers high-quality products at lower prices compared to traditional grocery chains.

The Global Alpha team recently added B&M European Value Retail SA (BME LN) to the portfolio to gain exposure to the discount retailer trend. B&M is the UK’s leading variety goods value retailer. The main brand, B&M itself, offers grocery, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and general merchandise in a variety of stores, located in out-of-town, suburban retail parks or, more recently, town centers.

B&M has a similar playbook to when Aldi and Lidl first entered the UK market, with an everyday-low-cost operating model leading to an everyday-low-price offering. Where B&M differs from Aldi and Lidl is that they offer a more targeted range of branded convenience grocery products such as shelf-stable food, soft drinks, confectionery and alcohol, in addition to FMCG categories such as toiletries and cleaning products.

Aldi and Lidl’s success has been built largely on the back of private-label products. Aldi stocks its stores with around 90% private-label products across all categories. B&M sells the well-known brands that families have been accustomed to using for years, sometimes generations, often at a 15% to 20% discount to the traditional grocer. B&M can do this as they have a disciplined approach to which stock keeping units (SKUs) they keep in store. By focusing on the top sellers, the volume demanded for a particular SKU creates buying power and more advantageous buying terms.

An easy way to visualize what B&M offers is to think of the middle aisles of a supermarket. B&M’s offering should be seen as complementary to, rather than a substitute for, a fresh grocery shop. Management has even communicated that some of their better performing stores are located next to an Aldi or Lidl; a customer will shop for fresh or frozen items in Aldi or Lidl, then completes the shopping in a B&M store.

In addition to the focused grocery offering, B&M offers higher-ticket general merchandise products that cover product categories such as homewares, electrical, gardening, toys and DIY. As customers wander the aisles, there is a “treasure hunt” browsing experience that often leads to impulse purchases. The general merchandise products are more aligned to seasonal trading patterns – the spring/summer seasons will see more garden and outdoor living products, whereas the autumn/winter seasons will see more toys and Christmas decorations.

The low-cost sourcing discipline is key to maintaining a price advantage over the competition. The reduced complexity of the supply chain helps keep costs low. Selling no fresh or frozen products means no need for refrigeration or freezers either on the shop floor or in storage areas. There is also less waste and the need to reduce prices to clear fresh produce approaching expiration date. B&M does not have an online or click-and-collect operation. As well as being historically lower profitability than offline purchases, it also adds a layer of complexity.

When shopping for groceries, a little bit of planning can go a long way. B&M has increasingly become a part of the weekly routine for budget-conscious shoppers. B&M will be a long-term beneficiary of the discount retailer trend and shows that growth can be found in “value.”

Like-for-like growth is typically highly profitable and the most desirable form of growth. B&M themselves state that 1% in LFL sales growth is the same as opening over seven new stores, but without the associated capex or increase in fixed costs. This can be achieved by taking a bigger share in existing catchment areas by offering a great value proposition. But B&M has a parallel growth strategy. The company expects to increase store numbers by at least 60% to reach no less than 1,200 B&M stores in the UK. This represents a decade-long growth runway at the current pace of openings. The new stores tend to be larger and often with a garden centre attached, so underlying sales are expected to grow ahead of the 60% increase in stores. More stores equal more volumes and, in turn, greater benefits to buying and productivity.

France is another avenue of growth. B&M entered the French market in 2018 via an acquisition, but all stores now operate under the B&M fascia. B&M currently operates 124 stores in France which has a population like that of the UK where B&M is targeting over 1,200 stores. Despite the upside potential in new stores, the pace of the rollout is slower than in the UK, opening around 10 new stores per year, due to a focus on profitable growth rather than rapid expansion.

The traditional top four UK grocers are not idly standing by while the discounters take market share. Asda was the first to come out and promise price cuts to be more competitive. Tesco PLC (TSCO LN), the market leader, expects a significant reduction in profitability owing to “a very competitive market.” J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY LN) then announced price cuts to compete with Tesco and Asda.

Price war or not, discount retailers are here to stay, and we believe B&M has a long cycle of growth ahead.

Global manufacturing PMI new orders – a timely coincident indicator of industrial momentum – fell for a third month in May. The decline from a February peak is consistent with a slowdown in global six-month real narrow money momentum between June and October 2024 – see chart 1.

Chart 1

The PMI fall started slightly earlier than had been expected here. The eight-month interval between the June peak in real money momentum and the February PMI peak compares with an average lag of 11 months at prior turning points since 2015.

Monetary considerations alone would suggest that the PMI will decline further into mid-year before recovering to another local high around end-2025 – the dotted arrows in the chart show a possible path.

The US trade policy shock, however, is likely to impart a negative skew to this profile, as recent demand front-loading reverses and spending decisions remain on hold until tariff uncertainty abates.

Accordingly, the current PMI decline could extend further than indicated with only a minor H2 recovery. Weak April money numbers, moreover, suggest darkening prospects for end-2025 – see previous post.

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Personne-ressource

Winners and losers

Caveat

Mexico’s scorching rally belies deteriorating institutional quality

Who is Federal Signal?

Federal Signal: A platform built for power and agility

Inside the plant: Innovation, efficiency and teamwork

Strategic growth: M&A and aftermarket expansion

Positioned for the future: Resilience and opportunity

What sets Global Alpha apart: The value of being there

Conclusion: Moving forward together

Les technologies d’usage général et l’économie

L’IA et les actions

L’IA et les infrastructures

Risques liés à l’IA

Les occasions et défis de l’IA

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