The Spanish economy has been the star performer in Europe recently, and consequently its principal stock exchange has also produced the best returns. In this week’s commentary, we look at the underlying reasons behind the performance of both the economy and stock market, as well as some of Global Alpha’s holdings in the country.

The Spanish economy grew over 3% in 2024, and another 2.7% of growth is forecast for 2025 which is significantly more than other advanced economies in Europe. The European Central Bank is forecasting 1.2% growth for the euro zone this year. Spain has seen its credit rating upgraded in recent weeks, in stark contrast to other large, developed economies such as the United States and France, which have recently seen their credit ratings downgraded.

A significant factor of this star performance is how the demographic situation in Spain is different from its peers. While the general movement in Europe has been toward more restrictive policies on immigration, Spain’s border has remained more open. The majority of the 600,000 average annual net inflow of immigrants are of working age which has resulted in record levels of employment (yet still the EU’s highest unemployment rate) and means Spain is not experiencing the labour shortage found elsewhere in Europe. A secondary effect is the increase in domestic consumer spending. Given that most immigrants are coming from Latin America, a shared language and culture have been key in the integration and, more importantly, acceptance into society. Most of the jobs being filled by migrants are in hospitality and construction, so there is more to be done to attract workers in high-end service sectors.

Spain has been, and continues to be, a prime beneficiary of the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Fund (RRF); only Italy has received more. The RRF provides loans and grants to EU member states for reforms and investments to make economies greener, more digital and ultimately more resilient. Spain received over €20 billion as recently as August for investment in renewable energy, rail and cybersecurity. The push into renewable energy because of the funds received from the RRF has reduced energy cost pressure and increased industrial competitiveness.

A final reason why the Spanish economy has performed so well has been the resiliency of tourism. Tourism accounts for approximately 12% of Spain’s GDP. Spain had a record number of visitors in 2024, an increase of 10% compared to 2023, and that record is expected to be beaten once again in 2025.

Combining the strength of the economy, investments and improved credit rating leads to the Spanish stock market outperforming. The outperformance is also helped by the composition of the IBEX 35, which has a large exposure to banks and financial institutions. The banks have outperformed on the back of the strong macroeconomic backdrop and improved asset quality post structural reforms. Spanish banks have low US tariff exposure, as do other domestic focused industries such as utilities and telecommunication companies.

Global Alpha counts three Spanish companies in its portfolios that give exposure to Spanish tourism, the resilient labour environment and domestic spending. Meliá Hotels International S.A. (MEL ES) owns and manages hotels and resorts. Meliá operates luxury, upscale and mid-scale hotels and resorts. Meliá operates hotels in Europe, Asia and the Americas. With fiscal spending increasing in Europe, consumer sentiment should improve, and leisure spending continues to show resilience. The demand in Spain means rates should remain strong and Meliá is well placed to benefit. Meliá has a much-improved balance sheet that trades at an attractive valuation.

Fluidra S.A. (FDR SM) is a global leader in the pool and wellness industry. They design and manufacture a range of products for residential and commercial swimming pools. The products include pumps, valves, heaters, filters, pool-cleaner robots, chemicals, and devices for pool IoT devices. Around 70% of Fluidra’s sales are to the residential end-market, and aftermarket accounts for the majority of Fluidra’s sales over the cycle, providing resilience while the industry waits for new-build activity to recover. Fluidra continues to trade at a discount to its US peers.

Merlin Properties Socimi S.A. (MRL SM) is the largest Spanish commercial REIT. It operates a 100% Iberian portfolio centred around offices, shopping centres, logistics, and most recently, data centres. Most of its assets are in the prime cities of Madrid, Barcelona, and Lisbon. The recent investment in data centres will start to contribute meaningfully to rental income by 2028 and represents the next leg of growth.

A headwind for Spain’s continued prosperity is that the minority government has been unable to pass much legislation. It has, however, avoided much of the turmoil seen in France. The challenge now is to capitalize on the domestic demand, robust tourism and EU recovery funds to continue to outperform its European peers.

In a world increasingly focused on wellness and sustainability, fish sits at the intersection of health and investment opportunity. From the cardiologist’s clinic to the equity analyst’s desk, the case for seafood has never been stronger. Whether you’re measuring omega-3 levels or return on equity, the numbers tell a similar story: balance, resilience and long-term growth.

In recent years, a quiet revolution has taken hold in nutrition circles: protein is back in the spotlight. Supermarkets and social media alike now highlight “high-protein” products, from snack bars and shakes to reformulated staples. What was once the domain of bodybuilders is fast becoming mainstream wellness. Major food industry reports confirm that the appetite for protein is real and broadening with 61% of US consumers increasing their protein intake in 2024, up from 48% in 2019. We all know the reasons: protein builds muscle, keeps you satisfied and supports overall health. What’s new is how it’s gone mainstream; it’s not just for athletes anymore.

This trend ties in perfectly with the growing focus on fish as a cornerstone of a healthy diet. As consumers shift toward protein-forward diets, seafood – long praised for its rich omega-3s – now gains even more appeal for its dual role: premium protein plus cardiovascular benefit.

Salmon isn’t just known for its omega-3s; it is a robust, high-quality protein source, and that amplifies its value in a protein-conscious world.

• Rich protein density: An 85 g portion of raw wild salmon contains about 17 g of protein, nearly all essential amino acids, making it a “complete” protein.
• Lean, but nutrient-dense: Compared to many red meats or processed protein sources, salmon provides its protein alongside healthy fats (primarily EPA/DHA), vitamin D, selenium and minimal saturated fat.
• High bioavailability and recovery support: The amino acid profile (especially leucine) in fish proteins supports muscle protein synthesis and recovery which is a benefit that complements the anti-inflammatory effects of omega-3s.
• Lower contaminant risk (relative to larger predators): While mercury and PCBs remain valid concerns for some species, salmon – particularly well-managed farmed or wild-caught types – tends to lie at the safer end of the spectrum, making it a smart choice within a diversified seafood diet.

This health-driven demand story is not only reshaping dietary habits, it’s also powering an investment opportunity. As one of the world’s largest salmon farmers, SalMar ASA (SALM NO) sits at the forefront of this global protein transition. The company’s scale, cost control and sustainability credentials make it a standout in the seafood sector.

SalMar is one of Norway’s leading salmon producers, and one of the highest-quality names in the global aquaculture industry. Based along Norway’s pristine coastline, SalMar combines decades of experience with innovative farming technology to produce salmon that’s both sustainable and consistently high in quality. The company’s strengths lie in its efficient operations, prime farming locations and focus on biological control, which keep production costs low while maintaining excellent fish health and environmental standards. With operations stretching from central to northern Norway and growing exposure in Iceland and Asia, SalMar is well-positioned to meet rising global demand for healthy protein.

Norwegian farmed salmon, more broadly, has become a gold standard for sustainable seafood. The cold, clean waters of Norway provide the perfect environment for salmon to grow naturally, while strict national regulations ensure traceability, low antibiotic use and responsible feed sourcing. Compared to other animal proteins, salmon has a smaller carbon footprint, delivers high-quality omega-3 fats and provides a complete source of lean protein making it a smart choice for both consumers and investors focused on health, sustainability and long-term value.

If consumers continue reprioritizing protein, salmon producers like SalMar, that manage costs, traceability and scale will enjoy structural growth beyond the broader seafood category. For our portfolio, the protein trend adds an extra degree of optionality of not just health credibility, but a narrative anchored in a “protein-first” consumer future.

The foundation of traditional Chinese medicine is Qi – the life force or energy that flows through a body. If, for any reason, the Qi in your body was to go out of balance or get blocked, one would end up falling ill. A wide range of plant- and animal-based medicines would then be used to unblock those pathways and to restore the balance of Yin and Yang in the body.

While traditional Chinese medicine techniques like cupping and acupuncture gain popularity both at home and abroad, China has been quietly making giant strides in the traditional pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors. In the past, it applied the principles of scale and an integrated supply chain to manufacture inexpensive generics faster and cheaper than its competitors.

Cut to present day, China’s pharmaceutical industry is on the cusp of becoming a global leader in both drug discovery and development. According to Morgan Stanley, annual revenues from drugs originating in China could reach USD$34 billion by 2030 and USD$220 billion by 2040. Currently, drugs from China account for only 5% of all USFDA approvals, but that is estimated to rise to 35% by 2040. So how did China go from a middling pharma player to the hot house of innovation and manufacturing that we see today?

Broadly, we can trace three key factors that are fueling this boom:

1. Reforms – The comprehensive series of reforms needed to move the needle in this space did not happen overnight. Over the last decade, China has made a deliberate push to move from a large-scale generics manufacturer to an innovation powerhouse by pushing through the following reforms.

• • Increasing innovative drug approvals – In 2017, measures were introduced to reduce the review timeline of innovative drugs to 60 days, increasing the efficiency of the drug development process. The result has been a record 93 drugs receiving first approval from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) in China in 2024 with China surpassing Europe and Japan as the second largest country to receive first approvals.
  • Investment inflows – Funding is crucial for innovation and reforms such as 18A listing rules in Hong Kong and the launch of STAR Market (touted as Shanghai’s equivalent to NASDAQ) allowed pre-revenue biotech companies to list and raise money.
  • Globalization – In response to intense competition at home, Chinese pharmaceutical companies have started to spread their wings abroad through strategic partnerships. This is being executed by applying for global approvals for drugs developed in China and through so called out-licensing agreements, where Chinese companies further the development of their unique IP by leveraging the R&D and commercialization network of western pharma giants.

2. Speed – To accelerate development of novel drugs, China’s regulator is proposing to further cut the clinical trial review period from 60 to 30 working days, matching the time line of USFDA. The presence of large pools of patients in Chinese cities further expedites the go-to-market process.
3. Talent – China graduates around five million science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) graduates every year. The recent crackdown in immigration in the United States has led many talented Chinese scientists and professionals (nicknamed “sea turtles”) to return home. The recent announcement by the Chinese government of the K visa program could further accelerate this trend.

This combination of speed, abundance of talent and structural reforms could throw up multiple opportunities in the Chinese pharma space. It is next to impossible to predict which company could win the next out-licensing deal. Similarly, picking the next big biopharma product requires a high degree of technical expertise. Hence our investment in Sunresin New Materials Co. Ltd. (300487 CH) takes a picks and shovel approach to this space.

Sunresin is a specialty resin manufacturer, making more than 200 different types of resin for a variety of applications from purifying water, extracting lithium to serving as an enzyme carrier for drug development including GLP-1 drugs. While its life sciences business makes up about a fourth of its revenue, given the trends discussed above, the growth opportunities and potential runway could be enormous.

The consumables that Sunresin manufactures have high barriers to entry, more stable risk profiles vs. betting on winning drugs and underlying high growth in total addressable market. Its products are used both for upstream synthesis of various active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and for downstream separation and purification that determines the final quality of the drug.

Key trends that underpin Sunresin’s growth include:

1. Growth of the biologics (large molecules) market that is growing faster than the chemical drug (small molecules) market. Biologics production has an upstream API synthesis phase that requires carriers and a downstream purification phase that requires chromatographic media (CM) to capture target molecules.
2. Sunresin produces both upstream carriers (for both large and small molecules) and downstream chromatographic media. Entry barriers are high as both products can make up 15–40% of production cost and are crucial to the final quality of the drug. Switching suppliers by commercial drug makers can be costly and time consuming.
3. Rise of import substitution in China and rise of overseas opportunities from out-licensing deals could further underpin growth.
4. Build out of new high-end life sciences capacity that could support 10x of current sales.

Between its proven products, new capacities and tailwinds from the growth of biologics and the larger China bio pharma sector, we see Sunresin as a key winner in the race to find the new blockbuster drugs on the back of China’s booming pharmaceutical sector.